陕北黄土高原月降雨理论分布的初步研究  

The Theoretical Distribution of Monthly Rainfall in Northern Shaanxi Loess Plateau

作　　者：张少伟[1] 杨勤科[2,1] 陆广勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌712100 [2]西北大学城市与环境学院,西安710069

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2011年第3期1-4,共4页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目专题:区域土壤侵蚀模型研究(2007CB407204-03);黄土高原水土流失数学模型(第一期)研发(黄水保200651-08)

摘　　要：利用陕北两个典型气象站点多年降雨强度数据,使用数学方法描述月雨强分布的形状,从而满足水文模型、土壤侵蚀模型等对降雨强度数据的需求。通过探讨小时雨强在月时间尺度上应符合的理论分布函数,并采用统计学参数估计方法进行参数拟合,来选择合适的数学方法对月雨强分布进行描述。使用最大似然法对常见的7种理论分布函数进行拟合的结果表明,LOGN、GAMA、WBL等理论分布函数都可以较好地再现月降雨强度分布,90%以上的月份COE值大于0.7,一半以上的月份COE值大于0.9。另外,WBL分布对降雨强度峰值亦有良好的表现能力,因此推荐在陕北黄土高原降雨分布的模拟过程中使用。Based on the hourly datasets of rainfall intensity from two typically climate data stations in northern Shaanxi,the paper studied the optimal theoretical distribution function of hourly rainfall intensity on the monthly temporal scale in this area.The aim is to improve the performance of hydrological and soil conservation models.When rainfall intensity datasets are used,the models will be greatly improved.The results showed that parameters of TDFs（including LOGN,GAMA and WBL etc.）,estimated by maximum likelihood method,can reproduce the shape of monthly distribution of rainfall intensity very well.Values of COE were greater than 0.7 for more than 90% of months and greater than 0.9 for more than 50% of months.Meanwhile,the distribution of WBL is recommended in study of rainfall distribution in northern Shaanxi due to its good performance in reproducing the peak value of rainfall intensity.

关 键 词：月降雨强度分布 理论分布函数 最大似然法 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]