基于主成分分析和GM(11,)的武汉市经济预测模型  

Economic Forecasting Model of Wuhan City Based on Principal Component Analysis and GM(1,1)

作　　者：张理政[1] 聂会星[1] 梁坤[1] 徐枞巍[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学管理学院,合肥230009

出　　处：《经济研究导刊》2011年第15期155-157,169,共4页Economic Research Guide

摘　　要：基于主成分分析法利用Matlab6.5对武汉市经济社会发展的综合指标进行分析,得出主成分因子并利用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对所得主成分因子得分做出预测,预测结果与实际接近。最后,利用可拓学关联函数理论构造正域为无限区间的关联函数对预测数据进行评估,评价结果符合实际情况。Based on principal component analysis this paper analyses indicators which affect the economical and social development of Wuhan with Matlab6.5 to work out the principal component factors and then make predictions about these principal component factors through the gray prediction model GM （1,1） which accords with the reality.Finally this paper employs the development function whose regular domain is infinite constructed by extensible develot）ment function to evaluate the nredicted data with a satisfving result.

关 键 词：主成分分析法 灰色预测模型 可拓关联函数 区域经济 

分 类 号：F29[经济管理—国民经济]