类比法在暴雨灾害损失定量预估中的应用  

Application of analogy method in quantitative preestimate of heavy rain disaster loss

作　　者：黄治勇[1,2] 龙利民[3] 邵末兰[3] 张宁[4] 邓红[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学,江苏南京210044 [2]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,湖北武汉430074 [3]武汉中心气象台,湖北武汉430074 [4]湖北省气象局科技与预报处,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2011年第2期246-250,共5页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BAC48B03)

摘　　要：从致灾因子角度,通过系统分析暴雨与其造成的灾害损失之间的关系,提取致灾关联度较高的暴雨因子,采用正态分布概率密度函数和最小距离法,建立区域性暴雨强度评价模型。在此基础上,通过分析历史暴雨个例之间灾害损失的相似性,采用类比法,建立了湖北5—9月暴雨灾害损失定量预估模型。2008—2009年的试验结果表明,类比法可作为暴雨灾害定量损失预估的实用方法。From the factors leading to a disaster,those more directly related with heavy rain disasters can be collected by analyzing the relationship between the heavy rain and the subsequent disaster loss systematically.An evaluation model of regional heavy rain strength is established by using the methods of normal distribution probability density function and minimum distance.On that basis,by using the analogy method,a model for quantitative preestimate of heavy rain disaster loss from May to September in Hubei Province is established by analyzing the similarities in the disaster loss in some heavy rain cases in history.It shows that analogy method is practical in quantitative preestimate of heavy rain disaster loss according to the test results from 2008 to 2009.

关 键 词：类比法 暴雨强度 相似性 可比性 预估 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]