2008—2009年宿州秋冬低温干旱成因分析与影响评估  

Causes and Impact Assessment of Autumn and Winter Low Temperature and Drought from 2008 to 2009 in Suzhou

作　　者：李德[1] 杨太明[2] 张学贤[1] 张丙振 

机构地区：[1]安徽省宿州市气象局,宿州234000 [2]安徽省气象科学研究所,合肥230061

出　　处：《气象》2011年第5期615-621,共7页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006027);国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD04B04)共同资助

摘　　要：为分析评估2008-2009年度宿州秋冬低温干旱成因及其影响,利用1953-2009年气象资料和大田灾情调查数据,结合冬小麦生育规律,采取相似年对比法和积分回归等方法进行了分析研究。结果认为:(1)2008—2009年度秋冬低温干旱的成灾主因是长时期降水稀少、麦田失墒和小麦未经抗寒锻炼而突遭—10℃以下低温所致;(2)旱灾与冻害对小麦的危害属于重旱和2级冻害;(3)57年间,共发生类似灾害2次,类似2008—2009年度旱灾的重现期为16.5年;(4)旱灾和低温是通过抑制分蘖和阻碍幼穗分化来对产量产生影响的。In order to evaluate the causes and impacts of autumn and winter low temperature and drought from 2008 to 2009 in Suzhou,we have conducted a research by use of the similar regression analysis method and integration regression method,based on the disastrous meteorological data and field disaster survey data from 1953 to 2009,and in combination with the growth law of winter wheat.It is concluded that the main reasons for autumn and winter low temperature and drought from 2008 to 2009 can be attributed to scarce rainfall for long time,loss of moisture in wheat field and the low temperature below 10℃suddenly without a prior cold stress.The drought and frost damages to wheat belong to respectively serious drought and class-2 freeze injury.It occurred twice in 57 years and the return period was 16.5 a as the disaster.Impacts of drought and low temperature on yield were by means of hindering tiller and spiking primordium differentiation.

关 键 词：秋冬干旱 低温 成因 影响评估 

分 类 号：S631.104[农业科学—蔬菜学]