基于层次分析法–灰色综合关联及多灰色模型组合建模的线损率预测  

Line Loss Rate Prediction Based on Combinatorial Modeling by Analytic Hierarchy Process-Gray Comprehensive Relationship and Multi Grey Models

作　　者：张勇军[1] 石辉[1] 翟伟芳[1] 何昌皓 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学电力学院,广东省广州市510640 [2]中山供电局,广东省中山市528400

出　　处：《电网技术》2011年第6期71-76,共6页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50337010)~~

摘　　要：提出了利用综合灰关联分析提取线损强关联因素的方法,建立了灰色模型(gray model,GM)(1,1)和GM(1,N)组合的电网线损率预测模型。电网线损率变化轨迹受多种因素影响,通过多种灰关联分析及层次分析法变权处理,按加权组合的综合关联度优选GM(1,N)建模参数。组合预测首先采用GM(1,1)模型预估建模参数值,而后将其代入GM(1,N)模型进行线损率精预测,算例表明,对于自然发展中的电网,该组合模型预测性能稳定、精度高,适用于电网中长期线损率预测。Using gray comprehensive relationship,the strong relation factors correlated with line loss are extracted,then a network line loss prediction model based on portfolio of GM（1,1） and GM（1,N） is built.The variation of network loss rate is influenced by multi factors,thus the modeling parameters are optimally selected by following manner：through multi gray comprehensive relationship analysis the network loss data is preprocessed,then the weight-varying of judgment matrix is performed by analytic hierarchy process（AHP）,finally the modeling parameters of GM（1,N） are optimally selected according to the comprehensive relationship of weighted combination.In combinatorial optimization firstly the GM（1,1） model is used to pre-evaluate values of modeling parameters;then these values are substituted into GM（1,N） model to carry out accurate prediction of line loss rate.Results of calculation example show that for being naturally developed power network,the prediction performance of the proposed combinatorial model is stable and the prediction results are accurate.The proposed combinatorial model is suitable to medium-and long-term line loss rate prediction..

关 键 词：灰色综合关联 层次分析法 灰色模型 线损率 

分 类 号：TM744[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]