中国货币供给内生性或外生性问题的实证  

Empirical Analysis of Endogeneity or Exogeneity for Chinese Money Supply

作　　者：冯玉明[1] 袁红春[1] 俞自由[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学管理学院,上海200030 [2]上海财经大学金融与保险研究所,上海200433

出　　处：《上海交通大学学报》1999年第10期1251-1253,共3页Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金

摘　　要：研究货币理论中关于货币供给的内生性或外生性问题．在向量自回归模型基础上，通过格兰杰因果检验对我国货币供给的内生性或外生性作了实证检验．结果表明，我国的货币供给具有较强的内生性质，这意味着以货币供给为操作目标的货币政策对经济的调节作用有很大局限性．因此，货币当局应采取有效措施，切实解决货币供给的内生性问题．It is an important problem tightly connected with monetary policy whether the money supply is exogenous or endogenous. This paper, based on Granger causality test in a vector autoregressive process, empirically analyzed the money supply in China. The conclusion is that the Chinese money supply is endogenous. This means the indirect monetary policy will not be very effective when it is used to regulate macroeconomics and the central bank should make great efforts to solve this problem.

关 键 词：货币供给 内生性 外生性 单位根测试 中国 

分 类 号：F822.2[经济管理—财政学]