2005年汇改后人民币内外价值关系研究  

Study on Renminbi's Internal and External Value after the Exchange Reform in 2005

作　　者：朱建平[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《区域金融研究》2011年第2期4-8,共5页Journal of Regional Financial Research

摘　　要：对内价值与对外价值是人民币价值的不同表现形式,从长期看,变动的方向应该具有一致性。2005年7月到2010年6月的数据实证表明,人民币对内价值与对外价值之间并不存在着长期的均衡关系;对外价值是对内价值的Granger原因,而对内价值不是对外价值的Granger原因;对内价值对对外价值的影响是短期的,而对外价值对对内价值的影响是长期的;对外价值对对内价值波动的贡献度要比对内价值对对外价值波动的贡献度大的多。由此得到的启示是:重视并纠正人民币内外价值偏离问题、管理人民币对内价值要重视对外价值对它的影响、疏通人民币对内价值对对外价值的影响渠道。Internal value and external value are two different forms of Renminbi＇ s value, and the direc tion of change should be consistent with each other in the long term. Empirical study of data from July 2005 to June 2010 showed that there was no long-term equilibrium relationship between internal value and external value. External value was the Granger reason of internal value, but not the opposite. Internal value for a short time impacted on external value, while the impact of external value on internal value was permanent. Contri- butions of external value to the fluctuations of internal value were much more than the opposite. Implications are： paying attention to and correcting the deviation of internal value from external value, thinking highly of the effect of external value while managing Renminbi＇ s internal value, clearing the influence channel of internal value to external value.

关 键 词：人民币 对内价值 对外价值 内外价值偏离 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]