人民币升值压力、短期国际资本流入及通货膨胀  

RMB Exchange Market Pressure,Short-term International Capital Flow and Inflation

作　　者：王德发[1] 王秋红[2] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院 [2]复旦大学金融研究院,200433

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2011年第6期12-22,共11页Shanghai Journal of Economics

摘　　要：人民币升值压力、短期国际资本流入和通货膨胀上涨是近期讨论最多的三个话题,从理论上可以证明,三个问题之间彼此相互联系,本文实证也证实了这一点:三个变量之间存在正向相关关系。格兰杰因果检验表明,人民币升值压力增大和通胀率上涨不是短期国际资本流入的原因,但短期国际资本流入时人民币升值压力增大和通胀率上涨的原因,因此,如何控制短期国际资本流入是解决问题的关键。RMB appreciation pressure,Short-term International Capital Flow and Inflation are three of the most tensely debated topics.Actually these three topics are connected with each other,as proved by this paper.Theoretically these three variables are correlated positively,which is proved by the empirical test.After that A Granger Causality Test is performed,which turns out that Short-term International Capital Flow could Granger cause the RMB appreciation pressure and Inflation,but the RMB appreciation pressure and Inflation could not Granger cause Short-term International Capital Flow.Thereby the key solution to the three debated problems lies in how to control the Short-term International Capital Flow.

关 键 词：人民币升值压力 短期国际资本流入 通货膨胀 

分 类 号：F832.63[经济管理—金融学]