基于马尔柯夫过程的干旱区景观生态环境动态分析——以新疆乌苏绿洲为例  

Analysis of the Landscape Eco-environmental Dynamics in Arid Areas based on Markov Process——A Case Study of Wusu Oasis,Xinjiang

作　　者：马珂[1,2,3] 王智[1,2,3] 吴友均[1,2,3] 周月明[1,2,3] 师庆东[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]绿洲生态教育部重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830046 [2]新疆大学干旱生态环境研究所,乌鲁木齐830046 [3]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《新疆农业科学》2011年第5期954-961,共8页Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(200821127);国家基础研究重点发展规划项目(2006CB705809-1)

摘　　要：【目的】采用1990年、2000年及2005年三期TM、ETM遥感影像为主要数据源,以新疆乌苏绿洲(乌苏-奎屯-独山子地区)为例,基于Markov过程原理,在景观尺度下分析该区域的生态环境动态过程与发展趋势,以期为关注干旱区生态环境动态变化,合理规划区域资源环境空间,促进绿洲可持续发展提供科学依据。【方法】研究以景观生态学理论和方法为指导,借助3S技术和图形处理软件。【结果】乌苏绿洲的区域景观生态环境动态变化主要表现为高山冰川退化、林草耕地化、土地盐渍化、低盖度草地荒漠化以及绿洲内林草地人居化;在空间动态上,农业发展主要为乌苏地区的奎屯河流域,城镇及工业化集中体现在奎屯、独山子地区,荒漠化、盐渍化主要发生在绿洲边缘地带,绿洲及其荒漠交错带的变化最为强烈。在发展趋势上,未来短期内绿洲—荒漠交错带面积减少,绿洲、荒漠的面积继续增大,但各景观类型的优势度并不会发生明显的变化,各景观类型仍然能够维持平衡。【结论】由于绿洲-荒漠交错带在荒漠绿洲平衡与共存机制中具有重要缓冲协调作用,一定程度上降低了生态环境压力,然而随着荒漠过渡带的减少,绿洲将面临更多新的生态问题,这在干旱区应受到应有重视。[ Objective and method ] The purpose of this program is to conduct analysis of the environmental dynamics process and development trend and observe the corresponding changes regional eco- in the hope of providing some scientific evidences for sustainable development of the oasis. TM ＆ ETM remote sensing images are used in the three periods in 1990a, 2000a, and 2005a, a typical case of study of Wusu oasis （Wusu- Kuitun- Dushanzi area） in arid areas in Xinjiang is taken based on Markov process and the regional eco - environmental dynamic process and development trend have been analyzed. The focus is also on the landscape scale, [Result]The results showed that phenomena that the glacier of the high mountains is being shrunk, the woodland and grassland have been tumed into farmland and the vast land is being salinized and low- covered grassland is in the process of desertification, etc. are all reflected in the landscape eco - environmental dynamics. In spatial change, agriculture activities occurred in Kuitun river basin of Wusu area, urbanization and industrialization took place in Kuitun and Dushizi area, and desertification and salinization area are situated at the fringy place between oasis and desert. Intense changes happened in these places. About the future development tendency, oasis - desert transitional zone will decrease, whereas the area of oasis and desert will continue to increase correspondingly. But the balance of all landscape types will be maintained, and landscape dominance will remain. [ Conclusion]As the significant buffer and coordination role of oasis - desert transitional zone in oasis - desert coexistence and balance mechanism, the eco -environmental pressure will be reduced to some extent. However, with the decreasing oasis - desert transitional zone, more eco-environment problems will arise in oasis , which due attention should be paid to in arid areas.

关 键 词：景观 MARKOV过程 生态环境 动态变化 干旱区 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]