浙江省热带气旋灾损和等级评估  

Tropical cyclone disaster loss and damage grade assessment in Zhejiang Province

作　　者：金志凤[1] 叶建刚 霍治国[3] 姚益平[1] 毛飞[3] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省气候中心,杭州310017 [2]绍兴市气象局,浙江绍兴321000 [3]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2011年第6期1304-1311,共8页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BAK50B02);科技部星火计划项目(2006EA141001)资助

摘　　要：利用2004—2008年浙江省各县的热带气旋灾情资料和同期社会经济数据,通过订正的转化函数建立区域对比度较好的相对受灾人口、相对受灾面积、倒塌房屋和相对直接经济损失指标值,用多项式拟合的客观分析方法建立各指标相对损失值与致灾因子(过程雨量、暴雨日数、大暴雨日数、日最大雨量、极大风速、最大风速、极大风速≥8m·s-1的天数、最大风速≥8m·s-1的天数等)的灾情评估模型;运用灰度聚类分析和专家定权相结合的方法,对热带气旋灾害指标进行灾情精细化定级。在此基础上,对2009年影响浙江省的"莫拉克"热带气旋进行灾情损失评估和等级划分。结果表明:根据各单指标灾情模型计算的受灾面积指数、受灾人口指数、房屋倒塌指数和直接经济损失指数与实际值的相关系数分别达到0.70、0.63、0.75和0.54,基本能反映因致灾因子造成各方面的灾损等级分布。"莫拉克"综合灾情评估结果较准确反映了热带气旋影响期间不同县域的空间分布特点;但受其他因素(孕灾环境、易损性、抗灾能力等)的影响,拟合灾情值存在轻灾高估、重灾低估的现象。By using the 2004-2008 tropical cyclone disasters data and social-economic information of the counties in Zhejiang Province,as well as the indices values with good regional contrast of relative affected population,relative disaster area,collapsed houses,and relative direct economic loss,which were built by revised conversion function,this paper established a disaster assessment model about the relative loss value of the indices and the hazard factors including process rainfall,rainstorm days,heary rain storm days,maximum daily rainfall,extreme and maximum wind speed （≥8 m·s-1）,and days of extreme and maximum wind speed by the method of polynomial fitting,and made a meticulous disaster grade classification of tropical cyclone via grey clustering and expert weighting.On these bases,the disaster assessment and grade dividing were given on the ‘Morakot’ tropical cyclone affected Zhejiang Province in 2009.The calculated indices values of relative affected population,relative disaster area,collapsed houses,and relative direct economic loss were approached to the actual indices values,with the correlation coefficients being 0.70,0.63,0.75,and 0.54,respectively,suggesting that the established assessment model could basically reflect the damage grade distribution caused by the hazard factors.The comperhensive rusults of ‘Morakot’ disaster assessment accurately reflected the spatial distribution characteristics of different counties in the Province during the ‘Morakot’ event,but,affected by other factors （pregnancy disaster environment,vulnerability,and resilience,etc.）,the fitted disaster was overestimated when the existing disaster was small,and underestimated when the existing disaster was great.

关 键 词：热带气旋 相对灾度 灰度聚类分析 灾损评估模型 灾损等级划分 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]