广东高等教育的周期波动:基于CF滤波的分析  

The High Education Cycle Fluctuations in Guangdong:An Empirical Investigation with CF Filter

作　　者：蔡俊兰[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南师范大学教务处,广东广州510631

出　　处：《广州大学学报（社会科学版）》2011年第5期62-66,共5页Journal of Guangzhou University:Social Science Edition

摘　　要：文章依据从时间序列变量中分离趋势成分和周期成分的CF滤波方法,对广东1978~2009年间包括实际GDP、人均GDP、高等教育毛入学率、每万人口大学生、普通高等学校、招生、在校生、毕业生、生均经费等在内的9个时间序列变量进行了消除趋势的处理,进而采用相关度研究,对作为普通高等教育基准周期退势后的GDP或人均GDP时间序列与退势后的其他7个时间序列变量之间的共动性进行经验统计分析。通过对高等教育与经济发展的波动性和协动性分析,总结出广东高等教育周期波动的经验特征和典型化事实（Stylized facts）。Based on the CF filter method which separates the trend components and periodic components according to the variables of the time series,this paper addresses the variables of nine time series to eliminate trend between 1978-2009,including Guangdong real GDP,per capita GDP,higher education enrollment rate,college students per million population,colleges and universities,enrollment,students in graduates,student funding,etc.By using the degree of correlation,this paper makes an empirical and statistical analysis of the co-movement between the after trending GDP or per capita GDP time series and other seven variable of time series.The analysis of the fluctuation and co-movement of higher education and economic development sums up the empirical characteristics and stylized facts of Guangdong higher education cycle.

关 键 词：高等教育周期 波动性 协动性 经验特征 CF滤波 典型化事实 

分 类 号：G640[文化科学—高等教育学]