基于聚类数据包络分析模型的可再生能源发电项目综合评判决策  

Comprehensive evaluation of renewable energy for power projects based on CA-DEA model

作　　者：董军[1] 曾博[2] 张建华[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206 [2]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京102206

出　　处：《可再生能源》2011年第3期90-95,103,共7页Renewable Energy Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70771039);新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(NCET-08-0771)

摘　　要：在深入调研的基础上,针对可再生能源发电项目规划环节面临的开发排序问题及运行后的效率综合评估问题,建立了聚类分析和数据包络分析相结合的CA/DEA两阶段评价模型。基于文中所设计的综合评价指标体系,引入了模糊层次分析法对于环境协调度等定性指标进行了综合分析,并运用基于聚类分析的主导因素挖掘方法从众多指标中选出最具影响力的因素指标;采用非参数DEA最优化模型对发电项目综合效率进行评估,较好地解决了生产函数难以确定的问题。通过CA/DEA模型所确定的综合投入产出效率,实现了对发电项目优秀度的有效评价。最后通过实例分析,验证了该评估方法的有效性及实用性。This paper presents a two-phase evaluation model called CA-DEA for renewable energy for power generation projects which combines cluster analysis and data envelopment analysis,aiming at the optimal resource exploitation sequence in the stage of planning and effective the efficiency evaluation during the period of operation.On the basis of a designed comprehensive evaluation index system,the fuzzy AHP was introduced to analyze the qualitative indices,such as the coordination level with local condition,and the dominant factors can be determined by applying cluster analysis（CA）;the nonparametric DEA model is adopted for the assessment of project input and output efficiency,which eliminates the difficulty of production function determination.According to the comprehensive value of the ratio of input to output,the effective assessment to the performance of the projects could be implemented.Finally,a practical case was given to indicate the effectiveness and practicability of the model.

关 键 词：可再生能源发电 聚类分析 模糊层次分析法 数据包络分析 综合评价 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理] TM61[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]