基于WPI-ESDA模型的中国水贫困评价及空间关联格局分析  

Research on the Assessment and Spatial Correlation Pattern of Water Poverty in China Based on WPI-ESDA Model

作　　者：孙才志[1] 王雪妮[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,大连116029

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第6期1072-1082,共11页Resources Science

基　　金：教育部人文社科规划基金项目(编号:10YTA790163)

摘　　要：水贫困评价是当今水科学的新领域。本文介绍了水贫困的研究概况,界定了水贫困概念,将水贫困分为自然水贫困和经济社会水贫困两个层面。依据牛津大学水贫困指标框架,适当添加反映社会适应性能力的指标,建立了由资源、设施、能力、使用和环境5个子系统综合而成的水贫困评价体系,利用综合赋权法对各子系统内部进行加权,并用动态层次分析法赋予各子系统不同时期的权值,体现了利用社会资源对水资源稀缺的适应性逐渐提高的现实。对1997年-2008年中国31个省(市)的水贫困水平进行计算和评价,并运用空间自相关分析方法进行分析。研究结果表明:北方地区自然水资源贫乏但是使用效率较高,东部地区的使用能力和设施水平普遍较高,经济发展较好的地区能更多关注环境保护,西部地区在各个子系统得分普遍较低;无论是自然水贫困还是经济社会水贫困都存在高度的全局空间自相关现象,水贫困分布没有从根本上摆脱自然资源稀缺的束缚,依然呈现南北分划的态势。The water poverty theory has created opportunities and inspired ideas to provide a theoretical basis of mitigating water shortage. Water poverty is defined as the lack of water in nature or the lack of capacity or power to use water. Water poverty can be divided into natural level and eco-social level. To build a reasonable index system, the sub-systems of Water Poverty Index （WPI） were appropriately adjusted, deviating from the original WPI. The new index system includes natural resource, access, capital, usage, and the environment. Access sub-system was expanded with supply, usage, and sewage treatment of water. The use sub-system was expanded with pressure and anti-reverse zone. The capacity sub-system was enriched by government capacity, economic capacity of citizen, and technological level. The environment sub-system was enriched by governance. Weights of the index in each subsystem were determined by the combination weighting method, which synthesized the results of the analytic hierarchy process and entropy method. The dynamic analytic hierarchy process was used to determine the weights of five subsystems to respond the current situation that the capability of adaption to water resource scarcity is enhancing with the development of economy and society. The theory of WPI was used in China and data for analysis were collected from China Statistical Yearbooks, China Water Resources Bulletins, and China agricultural Statistic Yearbooks. Results showed good coupling of water resource and human development. Specifically, situations of water poverty of Gansu, Shanxi, Henan, Ningxia, Heilongjiang, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Jilin and Shandong were relatively severer, whereas that of Guangdong, Hainan, Fujian, Zhejiang, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Shanghai, Chongqing, Sichuan, and Hunan were better. Radar chart was used to illustrate which aspect of the subsystems was weak in each province. The quantity of water in the southeastern China is more than the northwest in general. The situation of access and capacity in e

关 键 词：WPI—ESDA模型 水贫困评价 空间关联格局 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]