中国土地违法现象的影响因素分析——基于1999年-2008年省际面板数据  

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Land Law Violations in China Based on Interprovincial Panel Data during the Period 1999-2008

作　　者：龙开胜[1] 陈利根[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学公共管理学院,南京210095

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第6期1171-1177,共7页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(编号:09&ZD046);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(编号:KYZ200901)

摘　　要：从理论和实证角度,分析中国土地违法现象的经济、财政和政策等影响因素,并判断严峻的土地违法形势得到缓解的时间表。首先通过理论分析提出理论预期,然后以1999年-2008年省际面板数据为样本进行实证检验。结果表明,经济增长、城镇化、产业结构与土地违法的关系取决于经济发展阶段和方式,目前中国总体上仍处于土地违法随经济总量、非农产业比重同方向增长的阶段,但城镇化水平的影响不稳定;土地财政与土地违法现象显著正相关;土地违法治理政策对土地违法案件数量的减少有显著作用,但对违法案件涉及土地面积减少的作用并不显著;东部、中部和西部地区土地违法现象影响因素存在明显差异。研究还表明,到十二五规划末期,中国严峻的土地违法形势将得到缓解。因此,转变经济发展方式,避免地方政府过度依赖土地财政,强化土地政策的有效执行,是治理土地违法的有效途径。Examination of land law violations is an important topic at the current development stage of China. In this paper, influencing factors of land law violations, such as economy, finance, and policy, were theoretically and empirically analyzed. The time-table that serious situations of land law violations in China will ease was estimated. First, theoretical hypothesis was formulated through theoretical analysis, and then empirical test was performed based on inter-provincial panel data during the period 1999-2008. Result shows that 1） the relationship between economic growth, urbanization and industrial structure, and land law violations corresponded to the phase and mode of economic development. China is currently at the phase of land law violations, which generally increase with the total economic output and proportion of non-agricultural industries. The effect of urbanization is not steady. 2） Land revenue was significantly positively correlated with land law violations. This is because the local government excessively depended on land revenue, and even indulged or leaded to illegal land use in some cases. 3） Policy to control land law violations had a significant impact on reducing the number of land law violations, but did not seem to greatly reduce land areas where land law violations occurred. 4） Influencing factors of land law violations in eastern, middle, and western China were greatly different. In eastern China, economic growth was significantly positively correlated with land law violations, and the policy had a negative impact on land illegal use. In middle China, the impact of economic growth on land law violations appeared weak. Industrial structure transformation played an immaterial role in increasing land illegal use. In western China, the impact of economic growth was also weak, but industrial structure transformation had a positive impact on land illegal use. In general, land law violations increased with economic growth over the past ten years in eastern China, but it did not exist in m

关 键 词：土地违法 影响因素 经济增长 土地财政 面板数据 中国 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济] F224