深圳市商品住宅系统政策仿真研究  

Policies Simulation on the Commercial Housing System of Shenzhen City

作　　者：耿继进[1] 李妍[1] 

机构地区：[1]深圳市国土房产评估发展中心,广东深圳518000

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2011年第4期49-56,共8页China Land Science

基　　金：住房和城乡建设部2010年科学技术项日计划"我国房地产市场政策仿真实验室的构建与开发"(2010-R5-29(384))

摘　　要：研究目的:为了进一步提高房地产宏观调控的科学性与前瞻性,本文尝试建立商品住宅系统政策仿真模型。研究方法:该模型以系统动力学为方法论,深入分析了住宅系统内部各因素,以及内部因素与外部系统之间的反馈关系。研究结果:本文基于建立的住宅仿真模型,能够实现各项调控政策的政策实验。具体方法为将各种政策变量作为输入值输入政策仿真模型,从而得到房地产调控政策对市场各重要指标影响的输出值,通过对输出值的分析,能够实现调控政策实施效果前瞻性的分析和把握。以市场化程度较高的深圳房地产市场作为研究样本,本文利用仿真系统进行了实证分析。研究结论:实证结果表明,基于住宅系统政策仿真系统所做出的政策决策将更加科学和有效。The purpose of this paper is to establish a simulation model for the commercial housing system policies so as to improve the reasonability and the forecast ability for governmental macro-control on real estate market. Method employed is to analyze the factors of the housing system and the reaction between the inner system and the outer system based on the methodology of System Dynamics. The results indicate that the simulation model adopted by the paper can simulate various policies. The detailed method is that the output values of various important indices can be obtained through inputting various policy variables into the model, which reflects the impact of regulation policies in the real estate market. Based on the output values the forecast analysis on the impacts of regulation policies can be fulfilled. Taking the real estate market of Shenzhen as the research sample, where there is relatively higher liberalized market degree, this paper ran the simulation system to conduct empirical analysis. It is concluded that policies and decisions based on the policy simulation system can be more scientific and effective according to the empirical results.

关 键 词：土地经济 政策仿真 系统动力学 商品住宅 

分 类 号：F293.35[经济管理—国民经济]