运用移动平均模型对某部麻疹发病进行统计预测  

Application of Moving Average Model in Measles Statistical Prediction in a PLA Uniat

作　　者：孙海龙[1] 李申龙[1] 贾红[1] 邹文[1] 李文集[1] 张文义[1] 徐元勇[1] 李青华[1] 李亚楠[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军疾病预防控制所,北京100071

出　　处：《预防医学论坛》2011年第6期490-492,共3页Preventive Medicine Tribune

摘　　要：[目的]运用移动平均法对麻疹发病进行预测,为麻疹防控提供参考,为传染病预测提供方法学借鉴。[方法]利用某部2005-2009年麻疹发病数据,采用二次移动平均法,建立麻疹月发病预测模型,对2010年各月发病数进行预测,并对预测效果进行评价。[结果]麻疹月发病预测模型为：Yt＋T=（8.048 6＋0.869 9T）×1.045×8LT,2010年各月预测发病数与实际发病数的相对误差除2月和10月较大外,其余月份的平均相对误差为0.5385。[结论]应用二次移动平均数法对麻疹月发病的预测效果良好,可为麻疹提前防控提供依据。该预测法操作简单,预测效果好,并将季节因素考虑进去,是一种实用的传染病预测预报方法。[Objective] To predict the incidence of measles using the second moving average method,and provide a reference methodology for the prediction of infectious diseases.[Methods]Excel software was used to construct the second moving average prediction model based on the monthly measles incidence in a PLA unit from Jan.2005 to dec.2009,then the constructed model was used to predict the monthly incidence in 2010 and the prediction was compared with the actual incidence to evaluate the forecast results.[Results]The prediction model for the monthly incidence of measles：Yt＋T=（8.048 6＋0.869 9T）×1.045 8LT,and the predicted monthly incidence in 2010 by the model was broadly consistent with the actual incidence.The average relative error of the months except Feb.and Oct was 0.538 5.[Conclusion]The second moving average prediction model can be used to predict the measles incidence trend in future.This method is a practical method of disease prediction for its efficiency and practicality.

关 键 词：移动平均法 麻疹 预测模型 

分 类 号：R511.1[医药卫生—内科学]