PREDICTION OF SEA FOG OF GUANGDONG COASTLAND USING THE VARIABLE FACTORS OUTPUT BY GRAPES MODEL  

作　　者：黄辉军 黄健 刘春霞 袁金南 毛伟康 廖菲 

机构地区：[1]Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA

出　　处：《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》2011年第2期166-174,共9页热带气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：Natural Science Foundation of China (40675013);Research on Techniques of Specialized Forecast of Sea Fog and Visibility at the Pearl River Mouth;project of Science and Technology Program of Guangdong Province (2006B37202005);Research on System of Monitoring Sea Fog for the Pearl River Mouth;project of Meteorological Science of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau

摘　　要：By analyzing the NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis (2004–2008), a number of predictors (factors of variables) are established with the output from the GRAPES model and with reference to the sea fog data from observational stations (2004–2008) and field observations (2006–2008). Based on the criteria and conditions for sea fog appearance at the stations of Zhanjiang, Zhuhai and Shantou, a Model Output Statistics (MOS) scheme for distinguishing and forecasting 24-h sea fog is established and put into use for three representative coastal areas of Guangdong. As shown in an assessment of the forecasts for Zhanjiang and Shantou (March of 2008) and Zhuhai (April of 2008), the scheme was quite capable of forecasting sea fog on the coast of the province, with the accuracy ranging from 84% to 90%, the threat score from 0.40 to 0.50 and the Heidke skill from 0.52 to 0.56.By analyzing the NCEP 1° ×1° reanalysis （2004–2008）, a number of predictors （factors of variables） are established with the output from the GRAPES model and with reference to the sea fog data from observational stations （2004–2008） and field observations （2006–2008）. Based on the criteria and conditions for sea fog appearance at the stations of Zhanjiang, Zhuhai and Shantou, a Model Output Statistics （MOS） scheme for distinguishing and forecasting 24-h sea fog is established and put into use for three representative coastal areas of Guangdong. As shown in an assessment of the forecasts for Zhanjiang and Shantou （March of 2008） and Zhuhai （April of 2008）, the scheme was quite capable of forecasting sea fog on the coast of the province, with the accuracy ranging from 84% to 90%, the threat score from 0.40 to 0.50 and the Heidke skill from 0.52 to 0.56.

关 键 词：sea fog forecast coastal Guangdong MOS-based distinguishing scheme variable predictors 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]