逐级年龄生平境遇犯罪理论的提出与证立——以重新犯罪风险测量为视角  

The Proposal and Establishment of the Age-Graded and Different Circumstances Encountered in Life Crime Theory

作　　者：曾赟[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江警官职业学院

出　　处：《中国法学》2011年第3期137-147,共11页China Legal Science

摘　　要：本文首次提出了测量重新犯罪风险的逐级年龄生平境遇犯罪理论。首先,在研究犯罪发展理论、逐级年龄非正式社会控制理论、综合犯罪理论之于犯罪人持续与终止犯罪解释力的基础上,提出逐级年龄生平境遇犯罪理论的三个核心命题及11项相应假设。其次,设定了年龄、早年家庭依恋强度、早年学校依恋强度、服刑境况、生平遭遇、不良交往行为强度、反社会行为强度、反社会人格强度的八个测量模型,在对来自不同类型监狱的1238个在押犯随机样本的问卷调查与回归分析的基础上,按照P值小于0.05的标准,从八个测量模型中逐一提取了20项预测因子,创建年龄、生平境遇、行为与选择三个测量模型。根据三个测量模型的二元logistic回归分析结果,论证了逐级年龄生平境遇犯罪理论的三个核心命题。The author is the first one that proposes the age-graded and different circumstances encountered in life crime theory measuring the risk of recidivism.Firstly,on the basis of the research on explanatory power of offender committing a continuous act and a terminated act in crime development theory,age-graded informal social control theory,and comprehensive crime theory,this article postulates three core arguments and 11 relevant hypotheses of the age-graded and different circumstances encountered in life crime theory.Moreover,this article sets up eight measurement models which include age,early family attachment,early school attachment,circumstances of serving a prison sentence,different circumstances encountered in life,bad contact behavior intensity,anti-social behaviors,anti-social personality.After analyzing the questionnaire respondence from randomly picked 1238 inmates from different prisons and regression analysis and according to the standard of the P-value0.05,the author selected 20 prediction factors from eight measurement models and established three measurement models of age,different circumstances encountered in life and behaviors and choices.In accordance with the results of duality logistic regression analysis based on the three measurement models,the age-graded and different circumstances encountered in life crime theory is expounded and proved.

关 键 词：年龄 生平境遇 重新犯罪风险 

分 类 号：D917[政治法律—法学]