丹江口库区土地利用及其生态系统服务价值情景模拟  

Land use and ecosystem service value scenarios simulation in Danjiangkou reservoir area

作　　者：李亦秋[1,2] 邓欧[2,3] 张冬有[3,4] 韩德梁[5] 冯仲科[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]绵阳师范学院资源环境工程学院,绵阳621000 [3]北京林业大学测绘与3S技术中心,北京100083 [4]哈尔滨师范大学生命与环境科学学院,哈尔滨150000 [5]北京林业大学草坪研究所,北京100083

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2011年第5期329-335,F0003,共8页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2006BAC18B04);国家自然科学基金(30872038);国家社科基金(10XJY0021);绵阳师范学院博士启动基金

摘　　要：丹江口库区是南水北调中线工程的水源地,2015年大坝加高正常蓄水后不仅将新增淹没面积,也会引起土地利用的变化。本文以灰色预测为基础,设计了生态安全、经济发展和综合发展3种目标情景,并借助于CLUE-S模型对库区土地利用及其生态系统服务价值进行时空模拟,结果表明:水位提高前后土地利用变化引起各生态系统类型、面积及空间分布格局的变化,直接影响生态系统所提供服务的种类和强度。生态安全目标情景的总价值最大,水位提高前后分别为161.9和167.2亿元;经济发展目标情景的总价值最小,水位提高前后分别为153.73和159.03亿元。在各情景模式下,库区生态系统服务总价值均有所提高,灰色预测结果提高5.25亿元,生态安全和经济发展目标情景均提高5.3亿元,综合发展目标情景提高5.42亿元。Danjiangkou Reservoir is the water soure of the middle route of south-to-north water diversion project.Not only water flooded area will increase after the normal storage level in 2015,but also land-use will change.Based on the analysis of gray forecast,3 target situation including ecological security,economic development and integrated development were designed.Meanwhile,temporal and spatial simulations were conducted on the land use and its value of ecosystem services in the reservoir area with CLUE-S model.The results indicate that：the change of each ecosystem type,size and spatial distribution pattern which caused by land use change before and after raising the water level can directly affect the type and intensity of services provided by ecosystem.The maximum total value is the objectives scenario of ecological security,which is 16.19 billion Yuan and 16.72 billion Yuan respectively before and after raising the water level.The minimum total value is the economic development target scenarios,which is 15.903 billion Yuan to 15.373 billion Yuan corresponding.The total values of ecosystem services are improved in all scenarios.The value raises 525 million Yuan,530 million Yuan,530 million Yuan and 542 million Yuan respectively in gray prediction,ecological security and economic development target scenarios and integrated development goals scenarios.

关 键 词：土地利用 生态系统服务价值 情景模拟 丹江口库区 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]