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作 者:宋泓[1]
机构地区:[1]中国社会科学院,北京100732
出 处:《世界经济与政治》2011年第6期122-142,159-160,共21页World Economics and Politics
摘 要:2009年在全球金融危机的阴霾中,中国对外贸易总额超越德国,跃居世界第一位;2010年中国的国内生产总值超越日本,成为仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体。中国崛起对于全球经济秩序和全球治理结构有哪些影响、其他国家如何适应这种变化、中国应该采取什么样的政策呢?作者以现实主义的"大国崛起与国际关系调整"理论为分析框架,以中国参与多边贸易体系为例来分析和研究这些问题,得出的基本结论是:(1)中国的崛起不是颠覆或者大幅度改革现有多边贸易体制的革命性力量,相反,它是一股强大的支持和维护该体制的力量;(2)贸易和经济实力的增强促使中国成为多边贸易治理机制中的核心成员,并发挥着领导作用;(3)中国的崛起也会带来多边贸易体制中大国角色的转换和调整,并可能引发相当长一段时期的动荡和磨合期,这需要各方积极应对;(4)中国应积极引导多边贸易体制的发展,做一个负责任的领导者。China replaced Germany as the world's largest exporter in 2009.In 2010,the same game occurs;China replaced Japan to become the world's second largest economy,only after the U.S.What are the impacts of the rise of China on the global economic order and governance;how other countries react to this change;what is China's strategy to manage her rising power? Take China's participation into the multilateral trading system and WTO as an example,this paper draws the following conclusions:1)the rising China is not a revolutionary power to the WTO and multilateral trading system,but a strong supportive one behind it;2)thanks to her rising power in terms of trade and economy,China is becoming one of the key members in the WTO and multilateral trading system,sharing the leading role;3)the rise of China would bring about a long period of adjustment among the key members,some of which could not survive those changes,and the roles and positions of the others may be suffered.To manage this transformation remains a challenge for international society;4)China should actively promote the development of the WTO and multilateral trading system,and act as a responsible stakeholder.
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