地下水系统风险分析研究进展  

Advances in risk analysis of groundwater system

作　　者：杜朝阳[1,2] 钟华平[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水科学进展》2011年第3期437-444,共8页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：水利部中央水资源费专项课题(1261007606)~~

摘　　要：在总结地下水风险研究的基础上,提出了地下水系统风险定义,归纳了地下水系统的特点,分析了地下水系统风险的影响因素,并将其影响因素概括为3类:自然现象不确定性、社会不确定性、人类认知局限性,评述了地下水系统风险分析方法,针对目前地下水系统的风险分析理论和方法研究中存在的不足,建议从拓展地下水风险分析的基本理论和研究方法、选用合适的风险分析方法、风险概率和风险损失相结合以及研究"风险分析的风险"4个方面进一步开展地下水系统风险研究。We put forward a risk definition of groundwater systems on the bases of summarizing previous studies in groundwater risk analysis.Characteristics of groundwater systems are reviewed in detail,and risk effect factors in a groundwater system are analyzed and highlighted.The risk factors are then resumptively classified into three categories： Uncertainty of natural phenomena,social uncertainty and limitations in human cognition.Discussions on risk analysis methods are also given.For the issues and deficiencies on the subject,we highlight four aspects to improve the risk analysis of groundwater systems.These aspects include developing basic theories and expanding research methods,properly selecting the risk analysis approaches to addressing different concerns,combining risk probability and its loss,and studying on risk of risk analysis.

关 键 词：地下水系统 风险分析 不确定性 影响因素 

分 类 号：P641.2[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]