中国出口贸易联系持续期及影响因素分析——出口贸易稳定发展的新视角  

An Analysis of the Duration of China' s Export Trade Relation and its Influencing Factors

作　　者：邵军[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《管理世界》2011年第6期24-33,187,共10页Journal of Management World

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(10BJY081);江苏省社科基金项目(10EYC024);教育部人文社科基金项目(10YJC790169);东南大学基本科研业务经费项目(3214000501)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：贸易联系持续期是国际贸易研究中一个新兴议题。基于1995～2007年HS-6位数编码出口贸易数据以及生存分析方法,本文对我国出口贸易联系持续期进行了实证分析。统计分析显示,我国出口贸易联系持续期较短,从全部样本看,持续期的均值和中值分别只有2.84年和2年,Kaplan-Meier估计显示贸易联系生存概率呈快速下降的态势。进一步采用连续时间Cox PH模型、weibull和Exponential分布模型,以及离散时间PGM模型分析各种影响因素,结果发现,初始贸易额、出口目的地市场规模、出口商品类型、商品单位价值、汇率稳定等都会对贸易联系持续期产生显著影响,分析结果具有稳健性。在此基础上,本文提出通过稳定贸易联系、延长贸易联系持续期来推动出口贸易平稳发展的政策建议。The trade relation duration (TRD) is a new subject in the study on international trade. Based on the trade data, from 1995 to 2007, at the disaggregated HS 6—digit level, and using the method of the analysis of existence, we have, in this paper, made a case study on China' s TRD of Export. The statistical analysis shows that the TRD of China s export is relatively short, that all the specimens indicate that the median and value and the mean value are respectively 2.84 years and 2 years. According to the estimation made by the method of Kaplan-Meier, the probability of the existence of the trade relation tends to drop speedily. We have used the duration model of Cox PH, the Exponential distribution model, and the PGM model of the time of diffuseness to analyze various affecting elements and discovered that the initial trade value, the market scale of the destination of export, the type of export commodities, the unit value of commodities and the stability of the exchange rate have effect on TRD. The results of our analysis are stable. On the basis mentioned above, we have offered our suggestions, for government polices, that the trade relations should be stabilized and the TRD should be lengthened in order to propel the steady development of the export trade.

关 键 词：贸易联系 持续期 生存分析 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]