马尔可夫链在水库主汛期降雨状态预测中的应用  

Markov Chain State in the Reservoir the Main Flood Season Rainfall Forecast

作　　者：潘刚[1] 芦冰 邹兵[1] 陈崇德[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖北省漳河工程管理局,湖北荆门448156 [2]湖北水总水利水电建设股份有限公司,武汉430034

出　　处：《水利科技与经济》2011年第6期33-36,共4页Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy

摘　　要：依据漳河水库流域1963～2008年主汛期实测降雨量资料,应用均值标准差法建立5级分级标准。针对降雨量为相依随机变量的特点,以各阶自相关系数为权重,运用马尔可夫链模型预测未来一年的时段降雨量状态,结果表明,该方法直观、预测准确、计算简便,为区域降雨量的中短期预测提供了新的分析途径。According to Zhanghe reservoir basin 1963 ~ 2008 measured rainfall material,mean standard deviation method to establish the application level 5 classification standard.According to rainfall of dependent random variables,with the characteristics of self-coefficients as weights,using markov chain models to predict the future year period of rainfall condition,results show that this method is intuitive,predict accurately,simpler calculation,the short-term forecast for regional rainfall provides a new analysis approach.

关 键 词：自相关系数 马尔可夫链 降雨量变化 预测 漳河水库流域 

分 类 号：TV87[水利工程—水利水电工程]