金融危机对广东省出口影响的实证分析  

The Empirical Andysis of the Financial Crisis on Exports of Guangdong

作　　者：钱金保[1] 黄志良[1] 缪晨刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东轻工职业技术学院经济系,广东广州510300

出　　处：《广东轻工职业技术学院学报》2011年第1期22-27,共6页Journal of Guangdong Industry Polytechnic

基　　金：广东轻工职业技术学院社科启动资金(SK200911)

摘　　要：作为一个贸易大省,广东省出口在金融危机中受到什么样的影响?本文主要探讨金融危机对广东省出口的影响及其途径,首先给出了金融危机影响贸易的作用机制,并在重力方程框架下实证分析了影响出口的因素,结果发现国外产出的下降以及由此形成的时间效应是导致出口下降的主要原因;2008至2009年由于人民币汇率较为稳定,汇率对出口的影响相对较小。此外,我们还从贸易伙伴、贸易方式、企业的经济类型、产品类型等角度探讨了金融危机对广东省出口的影响。As one big trading province,what kind of impact is generated on Guangdong Province during the financial crisis？ This paper mainly discusses the influences of the financial crisis on exports of Guangdong Province and its determinants.First we give mechanisms on how the financial crisis affects trade,then under the framework of the Gravity model,we analyze the factors affecting the export.It is found that the decline in foreign countries＇s output and time effect are the main reason for the decline in exports;due to the stablabilityof the exchange rate of RMB to US dollar from 2008 to 2009,the impact on exports from exchange rate is relatively small.In addition,we also consider the financial crisis＇s influences on exports in detail according to trading partners,trade patterns,the property of enterprises,product type.

关 键 词：出口 金融危机 广东省 

分 类 号：O63[理学—高分子化学]