建设用地需求预测方法研究——以山东省东平县为例  

Study of Forecasting Methods of Construction Land Demand:With Dongping County,Shangdong Prvoince as an Example

作　　者：邹县委[1] 王瑷玲[1] 方颖[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学资源与环境学院,山东泰安271018 [2]东平县国土资源局,山东东平271500

出　　处：《国土资源科技管理》2011年第3期79-83,共5页Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划重大项目(2006BAJ05A12);山东省优秀中青年科学家科研奖励基金项目(2007BS08018)

摘　　要：针对传统预测疗法不能同时兼顾市场经济与政策对建设用地需求影响的不足,提出综合分析法,并以山东省东平县为例,将此分析法预测的用地需求与一元线性回归法、灰色系统GM(1,1)预测结果进行比较,从而评价综合分析法的可信度与准确性。运用综合分析法预测东平县近期(2010年)建设用地需求为16342.36 hm^2、远期(2020年)需求为17620.79 hm^2。该分析法对土地利用规划中的建设用地需求预测有借鉴意义。As traditional forecasting methods could not take into account the influence of market economy and policy on construction land demand, this paper compares the forecast of construction land demand with the predicted results derived from the unitary linear regression model, gray system GM （1,1） applying comprehensive analysis method and taking Dongping County as an example, thus evaluating the reliability and accuracy of comprehensive analysis method. It is predicted based on comprehensive analysis method that construction land demand in 2010 is 16 342.36 hm2 and 17 620.79 hm2 in 2020. Research result is valuable for land use planning of Dongping Country. Comprehensive analysis method is a scientific forecasting method of construction land demand and has great referential significance in the prediction of construction land demand.

关 键 词：建设用地 土地需求预测 一元线性回归法 综合分析法 东平县 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济]