北京市大兴区2006—2010年手足口病分析及2011年发病趋势预测  

Incidence Trend Forecast on HFMD in Daxing District of Beijing City during 2006-2010

作　　者：李冬梅[1] 刘海博[1] 甘亚弟[1] 侯文平[1] 张霁颖[1] 张勇[1] 陈达廷[1] 郭欣武[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京市大兴区疾病预防控制中心办公室,102600

出　　处：《职业与健康》2011年第11期1267-1269,共3页Occupation and Health

摘　　要：目的了解北京市大兴区手足口病的发病规律,对2011年发病趋势做出预测,找出工作重点。方法利用SPSS及Excel软件,对经国家疾病监测信息报告管理系统报告的数据进行描述性统计。结果流动人口聚集程度越高,发病率越高(χ2=1740.82,P<0.01);外省户籍病例比例逐年增高,病例数涨幅高于该市病例;发病时间范围跨度增大,高峰提前,持续时间更长;EV71成为流行的病原。结论加强流动人口管理,开展健康教育与环境整治,持续监测病原,提高诊疗能力,是应对手足口病流行的重点工作。[Objective]To understand the regularity of incidence of Hand Foot and Mouth Disease（HFMD）,and figure out the focus of prevention based on incidence trend forecast for the year 2011. [Methods]SPSS and Excel was used to descriptively analyze the data from the National Disease Surveillance Information Management System. [Results]The higher level of floating population gathering was correlated to the higher incidence rate of HFMD（χ2=1740.82,P0.01）;the proportion of non-local registered permanent residents in total cases gradually increased year by year,with the higher amount of increase than local registered permanent residents;the length of time span of incidence increased with the earlier incident peak and longer-lasted period;EVT1 became the major virus. [Conclusion]The main tasks for dealing with the HFMD＇ s epidemic should be to strengthen management of floating population,to carry out health education and environmental remediation,to continually monitor pathogen,and to improve the capability of HFMD diagnosis and treatment.

关 键 词：手足口病 疫情 分析 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]