人民币实际有效汇率与中澳贸易收支的关系——基于向量误差修正模型(VEC)分析  

The Relationship between Real Effective Exchange Rate of RMB and China-Australia Trade Balance——Based on Vector Error Correction Model

作　　者：赵华春[1] Jeffrey Forrest 熊云明[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京210016 [2]Department of Mathematics,Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education,Slippery Rock University [3]九江学院旅游学院,江西九江332005

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2011年第8期56-60,共5页East China Economic Management

摘　　要：文章利用向量误差修正模型(VEC),对中澳贸易收支与人民币实际有效汇率、中国实际GDP、澳大利亚实际GDP之间的关系作了实证分析。研究结果表明:中澳两国GDP、人民币实际有效汇率与两国双边贸易收支这四者之间存在长期均衡的关系;人民币有效汇率与两国贸易收支之间没有因果关系;调整人民汇率不能解决澳大利亚对中国的贸易逆差问题;人民币汇率与双边贸易收支之间不存在理论上的J效应;澳大利亚经济的发展有益于中国经济的发展,中国经济目前还是一个外贸拉动型的经济发展模式。This paper analyzes the China-Australia trade balance,real effective exchange rate of RMB,the real GDP of China and the real GDP of Australia according to vector error correction model.The results show that the four exits long-term equilibrium relationship.The study shows that there is no causal relationship between REER of RMB and the China-Australia trade balance.It can not solve Australian trade deficit to adjust the REER.The RMB exchange rate and trade balance does not have J effect.Australian economic development benefits China＇s economic development,and Chinese economy is still a model of trade-led＇s economic development.

关 键 词：向量误差修正模型 脉冲反应函数 GDP 实际有效汇率 

分 类 号：F830.1[经济管理—金融学]