网络舆情预警机制的系统动力学仿真  

Warning Mechanism Model of Online Public Opinion Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：徐学峰[1] 杜晚樱[2] 郝晓霞[1] 梁凯[1] 

机构地区：[1]青岛大学国际商学院,山东青岛266071 [2]青岛大学经济学院,山东青岛266071

出　　处：《青岛大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第2期83-86,共4页Journal of Qingdao University(Natural Science Edition)

摘　　要：利用层次分析法和系统动力学建模,考虑网络舆情传播各个环节,建立了网络舆情预警机制的系统动力学模型,将网络舆情预警机制定量研究与定性研究相结合,从政府和网络媒体两个方面分析了模型。结果表明,运用系统动力学研究网络舆情提高了舆情预警的准确性;通过提高政府公信力和加强舆情预防,可以缩短舆情运行周期;加强网络监管,从源头提高预警,减弱其对社会的危害性。Based on the AHP and system dynamics, a system dynamic model for warning mechanism of online public opinion was built. The model was analyzed from the relationship between government and network media by qualitative and quantitative. The model was simulated by using VENSIM. Results show that such method can improve the accuracy of early warning of public opinion, reduce the cycle time and weaken its harmfulness by enhancing the government credibility and strengthening the supervision of network.

关 键 词：系统动力学 层次分析法 网络舆情 预警机制 

分 类 号：N941.3[自然科学总论—系统科学] F253.4[经济管理—国民经济]