基于土性相关蒙特卡罗法的争岗滑坡堆积体可靠性分析  

Reliability analysis of Zhenggang landslide deposit based on Monte-Carlo method with relevant parameters of c and φ

作　　者：李德亮[1,2] 石崇[1,2] 聂卫平[1,2] 刘和[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学岩土力学与堤坝工程教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学岩土工程科学研究所,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第3期317-322,共6页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50911130366)

摘　　要：针对澜沧江古水水电站争岗滑坡堆积体工程地质条件,在室内剪切试验、工程类比、参数反演基础上综合确定了岩土体力学参数及其统计分布规律.采用基于黏聚力c与内摩擦角φ相关抽样下的蒙特卡罗法对堆积体典型剖面进行了多种工况下的可靠性分析,预测了其未来的变形失稳特征.研究结果表明:当前堆积体B—B′剖面在正常运行工况下的破坏概率为23.4%,暴雨工况下为55.2%,若不加治理堆积体极有可能产生失稳,这与现场勘探成果表明的堆积体在正常运行工况下稳定、暴雨工况下处于蠕滑变形状态相吻合.在此基础上根据工程稳定性要求,提出了相应的防护、加固措施,使堆积体支护后在暴雨工况下的破坏概率降低至6.2%.According to the special engineering geological conditions of Zhenggang landslide deposit in Gushui Hydropower Station on Lancang River,the mechanical parameters and their statistical distribution were determined based on the laboratory direct shear tests,engineering analogy and back analysis of parameters.The reliability analysis of typical sections of the landslide deposit under various working conditions were performed by means of the Monte-Carlo method combined with the relevant parameters of cohesion c and internal friction angle φ.The potential instability modes and deformation characteristics were predicated.The results indicate that the failure probability of the B-B section is 23.4% under the normal operating conditions,and it is 55.2% under the rainstorm conditions.If the landslide deposit is not treated,it may be unstable.It is consistent with the field investigations under the above two conditions,that is,slow sliding deformation.On such a basis,the corresponding protection and reinforcement measures are proposed according to the engineering stability requirements.The failure probability of the landslide deposit is reduced to be 6.2% under the rainstorm condition.

关 键 词：边坡稳定 滑坡堆积体 可靠性分析 蒙特卡罗法 争岗滑坡堆积体 古水水电站 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]