江苏省典型产业与气象条件变化关系研究  

Relationship Analysis between Typical Industries of Jiangsu Province and Meteorological Factors

作　　者：杨松[1] 巩在武[1] 李廉水[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学,南京210044

出　　处：《阅江学刊》2011年第3期84-89,共6页Yuejiang Academic Journal

基　　金：科技部行业专项"气象服务效益评估方法与技术研究"(GYHY200806017);国家自然科学基金项目"残缺信息环境下的专家直觉型判断知识融合与决策方案优选研究"(70901043)

摘　　要：利用1980年—2008年江苏省各行业的年度数据,计量江苏省不同行业的经济产出与气象条件变化的关系。由回归得出的农业、建筑业、房地产业和金融业对气象条件的敏感性分别是2·34%、3·36%、1·91%以及8·45%;由灰色系统得出的农业、建筑业、房地产业和金融业对气象条件的敏感性分别是0·736%、0·741%、0·686%、0·755%。影响从高到低排序依次为金融业、建筑业、农业和房地产业。分析表明,江苏省经济产出与气象条件有着紧密的联系。This paper analyses the relationship between meteorological factors and economic output of different industry sectors of Jiangsu province by utilizing the annual data from 1980 to 2008.The sensitivity of agriculture,construction,real estate industry and financial industry impacted by meteorological conditions from regressions are 2.34%,3.36%,1.91% and 8.45% respectively.At the same time,the sensitivity of agriculture,construction,real estate industry and the financial industry impacted by meteorological conditions from Gray system are 0.736%,0.741%,0.686% and 0.755% respectively.The impact of industries ranked from highest to lowest is the financial industry,construction,agriculture and real estate industry.The study indicates that meteorological factors and economic outputs of Jiangsu province are closely associated.

关 键 词：气象条件 敏感性 C-D生产函数模型 灰色关联 江苏省 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] F127[经济管理—世界经济]