华南地区1961-2008年暴雨事件的气候变化特征  

Climate Change Characteristic of Rainstorm Event Over South China in 1961-2008

作　　者：张维[1] 林少冰[1] 杜尧东[2] 刘锦銮[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东省气象台,广州510080 [2]广东省气候中心,广州510080

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2011年第2期20-24,共5页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF-09-03;CCSF-09-11)资助

摘　　要：根据华南地区110个气象站1961-2008年逐日降水资料,采用线性趋势法,对华南地区暴雨事件的时空变化特征进行了研究。结果表明:近48 a来,华南年暴雨降水频数呈不显著的上升趋势,上升速率为0.18次/10 a,其中两广地区的东南和西部、海南省呈增加趋势,两广地区中部呈减少趋势;前汛期、后汛期暴雨降水频数均呈不显著的上升趋势,前汛期为0.05次/10 a,后汛期为0.09次/10 a,后汛期上升速率高于前汛期。华南年暴雨降水总量呈不显著的上升趋势,上升速率为16.57 mm/10 a,除粤桂交界地带的中部地区有减少趋势外,其余地方均有不同程度的增加趋势;暴雨降水量上升速率前汛期为4.75 mm/10 a,后汛期为7.59 mm/10 a,均没有通过显著性检验。年暴雨降水平均强度也呈不显著的上升趋势,上升速率为0.19(mm/d)/10 a,其中粤北、海南东部、广西西南以及北部地区年暴雨降水平均强度有增大趋势,其余地区有变小趋势;前汛期暴雨降水平均强度呈不显著的增加趋势,增加速率为0.12(mm/d)/10 a,后汛期暴雨降水平均强度呈不显著的减小趋势,减小速率为0.60(mm/d)/10 a。Based on the 1961-2008 daily precipitation data from 110 meteorological stations in South China,the spatial and temporal change characteristic of rainstorm event over South China were studied by the way of linear trend.In past 48 years,rise rates of the number of rainstorm days for whole year,first rainy season,second rainy season were 0.18 times/10a,0.05 times/10a and 0.09 times/10a,respectively,and have not reached significance level.The regional distribution of changes for the number of rainstorm days showed that the trend was rise in west and southeast of Guangdong and Guangxi,as well as Hainan,nevertheless was fall in middle of Guangdong and Guangxi.Rise rates of the rainstorm rainfall for whole year,first rainy season,second rainy season were 16.57 mm/10a,4.75 mm/10a,7.59 mm/10a,respectively,and have not reached significance level.Trend of rainstorm rainfall was rise in most parts of South China except the middle of Guangdong-Guangxi border regions.Rise rates of the average intensity of rainstorm rainfall for whole year,first rainy season were 0.19（mm/d）/10a,0.12（mm/d）/10a,respectively,and have not reached significance level.But the average intensity of rainstorm rainfall for second rainy season showed an insignificant drop trend with 0.60（mm/d）/10a.Trend of the average intensity of rainstorm rainfall was rise in northern Guangdong,eastern Hainan,southwestern and northern Guangxi,was fall in other parts of South China.

关 键 词：华南 暴雨频数 暴雨降水量 暴雨降水强度 变化趋势 

分 类 号：P426.623[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P467