苯作业职业暴露评估与致癌风险模拟  

Occupational exposure assessment and carcinogenic risk simulation in benzene workers

作　　者：黄德寅[1] 张倩[2] 刘茂[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津渤海化工集团公司劳动卫生研究所,天津300051 [2]南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津300071

出　　处：《中国工业医学杂志》2011年第3期163-167,共5页Chinese Journal of Industrial Medicine

基　　金：天津自然科学基金资助项目(10JCYBJC13400)

摘　　要：目的通过对苯等化学致癌物慢性暴露致癌风险的定量评价,为我国职业危害因素的控制以及职业肿瘤等严重职业病的预防和管理提供科学依据,进行职业危害防控。方法选取某大型石油化工企业新建50万t/年苯乙烯装置作为研究对象,以目前国际上普遍采用的健康风险评价四段法的步骤,即风险辨识、剂量-反应评价、暴露评价和风险表征等,以苯致癌风险概率作为评价目标进行定量化分析;应用ERDEM软件对内暴露剂量进行数值模拟,采用多阶模型分析暴露剂量与致癌反应之间定量关系;针对暴露与风险的不确定性,采用Crystal ball蒙特卡洛模拟方法分析概率分布规律。结果该装置工人苯暴露的致癌风险明显超过了美国EPA制定的人体致癌风险值1×10-6,需要采取相关措施降低风险。结论利用ERDEM暴露分析软件及crystal ball蒙特卡洛模拟软件对内暴露剂量及风险概率进行数值模拟,可以得到致癌风险值的概率分布及其统计分布特征,从而为风险管理者提供更准确的信息。Objective By quantitatively evaluating the carcinogenic risk in workers with chronic benzene exposure,to provide a scientific basis for the control of occupational hazards and prevention of occupational cancers.Methods A new 500 000 t/y styrene plant of a big petrochemical enterprise was selected as survey object.Carcinogenic risk was evaluated by health risk assessment four-paragraph method,the quantitative analysis was performed to evaluate the probability of benzene carcinogenic risk.The internal dose was simulated by ERDEM software,the multi-stage model was applied for quantitatively analyzing the relationship between exposure dose and carcinogenic response.Owing to the uncertainty of exposure and risk,Monte Carlo simulation（Crystal ball）was used to analyze the probability distribution rule.Results The result showed that the cancer risk by benzene-exposure in workers of the styrene plant exceeded 1×10-6,the human cancer risk value established by EPA in USA,that means the further protection measures are necessary.Conclusions It is useful to get the probability distribution of cancer risk,and mathematical statistics feature by using ERDEM exposure analysis software and Monte Carlo simulation software,thereby offer more accurate information for risk managers.

关 键 词：苯 职业暴露 致癌风险 内暴露 职业健康 

分 类 号：R135.1[医药卫生—劳动卫生] O625.11[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]