三峡库区湖北段工业源污染负荷与预测  

Pollution-loaded evaluation from the industrial sources and its forecast in the Hubei section of the Three-Gorge Reservoir

作　　者：马啸[1] 李晔[1] 杜双[1] 刘文博[1,2] 曾璞[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学资源与环境工程学院,武汉430070 [2]西安建筑科技大学环境与市政工程学院,西安710055

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2011年第3期148-151,共4页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项子专题项目(2009ZX07104-001);武汉科技攻关计划项目(201060723315);武汉理工大学研究生创新基金项目(2010-ZY-ZH-010)

摘　　要：针对三峡库区工业源污染排放量大,对库区水生态环境安全危害大的特点,以库区湖北段工业源为研究对象,采用实际监测和企业申报监测数据方式,辅以排污系数计算方法,统计分析了1995—2007年工业废水量和主要污染物COD的排放量,并采用灰色-马尔柯夫链模型预测2008—2020年的污染负荷。结果表明,自2005年以后,工业废水的排放量呈现逐渐下降的趋势,在2007年达到1857.13万t,2008年以后逐渐增加。COD的排放量总体呈逐渐下降的趋势,只是在2001年出现上升,到2007年底COD的排放量为611.21t。随着工业源污染物全防全控的加强,预计工业污染负荷会逐步减少。This paper takes it as its goal to investigate and report the poflution situation caused by the industrial sources in Hubei Section of the Three-Gorge Reservoir by using the statistical data from the actual monitoring and business reports from 1995 to 2007 along with the emission coefficient calculation. As a matter of fact, the pollution situation from the industrial sources has become more and more serious for the water coo-environment security of the Reservoir. By using the Grey Model-Markov chain model, we have made a forecast evaluation of the likely amount of the industrial sewage and COD in the section from 2008 to 2020 in hoping to provide a piece of advice for the local environmental protection departments. The proposed model tried to join both the grey forecasting merits and those of Markov chains forecasting and therefore improved the model so as not only able to reduce the random fluctuation of accidental factors affecting the forecasting accuracy but also helps to extend the application sphere of the grey model. Theretore, the improved model of ours is expected to be taken as an available means for the future industrial pollution management and control. The results of investigative study indicate that the amount of the industrial sewage declined gradually since 2005. By the end of 2007, its amount reached 18 571.3 kiloton, 32.01%, much less than that in 2005, though a rising upturn once appearing in the year of 2008. While the emission amount of COD generally declined despite some fluctuation in 2001, its amount reached 611.21 ton, 92.0% as compared to that in 1995. A declining trend appeared also after 2008. As all the pollution sources from the industrial sources are blocked out under successful control, things have gone much better in the area. Thus it can be predicted that the pollution load from industrial sources in the area will be further reduces in the future.

关 键 词：环境工程学 三峡库区 工业污染 灰色-马尔科夫链 预测 

分 类 号：X524[环境科学与工程—环境工程]