基于Var模型的我国农业利用外资对农业政策依赖度衡量分析  

Digital measurement about the dependence relationship between foreign direct investment(FDI) in agricultural field and agricultural policies based on Var model

作　　者：戴玲玲[1] 陈仲常[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学贸易与行政学院,重庆400030

出　　处：《广东农业科学》2011年第7期172-175,共4页Guangdong Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：在Var模型的基础上,通过协整分析,脉冲响应和方差分解的方法对我国农业利用外资与农业政策、前一期农业发展水平的关系进行了全面研究。结果表明:农业利用外资与农业政策、前期农业发展水平之间存在长期动态均衡关系,且农业利用外资规模对内部因素即农业发展水平的依赖度是61%,对外部因素即农业政策的依赖达到31%;农业政策冲击对农业利用外资波动有较强解释能力,政策环境是影响农业利用外资规模的重要因素,当农业经济不景气时,通过农业政策调整,可有效抑制外资从农业中流走。在此基础上,就我国农业利用外资比重极小的现状,提出扩大农业利用外资规模的政策建议。On the basis of Var model, the relationships among FDI in agricultural field, agricultural policies and agricultural development level were analysised by JJ Test, Impulse Responses and Variance Decompositions. The results showed that there was a dynamic balanced relationships in a long-term among FD1 in agricultural field, agricultural policies and agricultural development level, and the dependence between FDI in agricultural field and agricultural development level was 61%,well, the dependence between FDI in agricultural field and agricultural policies achieved 31%. agricultural policies could regulate the fluctuation of FDI in agricultural field effectively; and appropriate adjustment of agricultural policies would be a good way to keep FDI in agricultural field in the face of economy downturn, Finally, with current situation that FDI in agricultural field takes an extremely small proportion, some feasible advices were listed for scale enlargement of FDI in agricultural field.

关 键 词：农业利用外资 农业政策 农业发展水平 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F304.4[经济管理—产业经济]