基于PI模型的加速可靠性增长试验统计分析  

Statistic Analysis of Accelerated Reliability Growth Testing Based on Proportional Intensity Model

作　　者：罗敏[1] 王立志[2] 姜同敏[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海同济大学铁道与城市轨道交通研究院,上海200092 [2]北京航空航天大学工程系统工程系,北京100191

出　　处：《同济大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第4期591-594,619,共5页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

基　　金："十一五"国防科研项目(2132007B004)

摘　　要：针对加速可靠性增长试验中需要通过加速应力试验条件获得的故障信息,定量评价正常应力下产品可靠性增长所达到的可靠性水平问题.首先阐述恒定应力加速可靠性增长试验实施过程.其次,基于用于随机点过程的统计回归模型——PI(比例强度)模型,结合工程实际中广泛应用的可靠性增长模型—AMSAA,提出了模型和数据分析假设,建立了恒定应力加速可靠性增长试验的统计评估模型,给出了未知参数的极大似然估计方法.进一步,根据非齐次泊松过程的性质,得到了恒定应力加速可靠性增长试验故障数据的仿真抽样公式,通过对不同时间截尾下的仿真算例的统计分析,验证了该方法的可用性和合理性.To solve the question of reliability evaluation for accelerated reliability growth testing（ARGT）,firstly the test procedure of constant stress ARGT is described.Secondly,by combining proportional intensity model which is a nonparametric statistical regression model for stochastic point process with AMSAA model for reliability growth,assumptions of data analysis are proposed.Then the statistical analysis model of CSARGT is established and the maximum likelihood estimation method of unknown parameters is given.Furthermore,according to characteristic of non-homogeneous poisson process,a simulation sampling formula that can simulate failure data of CSALT is derived,and simulation examples under different stress levels are discussed.Finally the availability and reasonableness of the proposed statistical method are verified.

关 键 词：加速可靠性增长试验 比例强度模型 蒙特卡罗仿真 参数估计 

分 类 号：TB114[理学—概率论与数理统计]