机械零件相关失效可靠度及灵敏度计算的Monte Carlo方法  

Monte Carlo Method for Computing of Reliability and Sensitivity of Mechanical Components with Dependent Failure Modes

作　　者：闫明[1] 张义民[1] 孙志礼[1] 李鹤[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北大学机械工程与自动化学院,辽宁沈阳110819

出　　处：《东北大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第6期834-837,共4页Journal of Northeastern University(Natural Science)

基　　金：长江学者和创新团队发展计划项目(IRT0816);"高档数控机床与基础制造装备"科技重大专项(2009ZX04011-012;2010ZX04014-014);国家自然科学基金资助项目(50875039);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(20100481201)

摘　　要：机械零部件可能发生多种失效模式,而且各个失效模式往往不是相互独立的.用理论方法计算相关失效模式下的可靠度需要做出一些假设或简化,可能带来较大的误差,失效模式的相关性使可靠性灵敏度的计算更加困难.根据灵敏度和偏导数的定义,提出了多种失效模式下可靠性灵敏度的数学模型,并用Monte Carlo方法实现求解,探讨了如何获取合理的抽样次数和随机变量参数的增量值.该方法无需对失效模式之间的关系、随机变量和极限状态函数的分布类型作出任何假设或简化,因此该方法计算结果准确、应用范围广泛.A mechanical component may fail in many modes that are usually not independent.Based on some hypotheses and simplified models,the reliability and sensitivity in correlated failure modes can be obtained by theoretical approaches which,however,bring large errors.According to the definitions of the sensitivity and partial derivative,the mathematical models about the reliability and sensitivity are put forward and solved by Monte Carlo method.How to obtain an appropriate sampling size and increment of the random variables is also discussed.Without considering the relationship between the failure modes,the distribution patterns of the random variables and the ultimate state functions,the reliability and sensitivity in the correlated failure modes can be achieved by utilizing Monte Carlo method.This method is thus accurate and would be widely useful.

关 键 词：可靠度 灵敏度 MONTE CARLO方法 相关失效 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]