印尼盾的汇率走势及成因:2001—2010年  

Indonesian Rupiah's Exchange Rate Trend and Its Causes:From 2001 to 2010

作　　者：刘兴华[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学金融学院,南昌330013

出　　处：《东南亚研究》2011年第3期9-14,25,共7页Southeast Asian Studies

基　　金：江西省社会科学研究"十一五"(2006-2010年)规划项目"当前世界经济周期波动的特点及其变动趋势研究"(10J203)

摘　　要：2001年以来,印尼盾兑美元汇率或升或贬,经历了震荡、贬值、平稳、升值四个发展阶段。印尼国内的经济政治发展是这一时期印尼盾汇率变化的内因,美国经济波动、国际油价涨跌是印尼盾汇率走势变动的外因,偶然性因素的突发使印尼盾的运行变得更加复杂。由于印尼强劲的经济发展、稳定的政治环境以及美国经济恢复乏力,"美元趋弱、印尼盾走强"成为印尼盾汇率未来走势的主线。The exchange rate of Indonesian rupiah against dollar has experienced tour periods： concussion, depreciation, stability and appreciation, while it rose or fell continuously since 2001. On the one hand, the development of domestic economy and politics is the internal reason that makes the exchange rate change in this period, on the other hand, the economic fluctuation of the U. S. , dramatic price rising of international oil are the external reasons that drive rupiah to vary. Moreover, the occasional factor could drive rupiah＇s exchange rate trend complicated. In future, rupiah＇s exchange rate will probably be in the motion of ＂weak dollar, strong Rupiah＂ due to powerful economic development, stable political environment and feeble economic recovery of the U. S..

关 键 词：印尼盾 经济增长 经济波动 国际油价 

分 类 号：F833.426[经济管理—金融学]