基于贝叶斯定理的汛限水位动态控制风险分析  

Risk analysis on the dynamic control of limit water level based on Bayes theorem

作　　者：王本德[1] 郭晓亮[1] 周惠成[1] 王国利[1] 刁艳芳[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学土木水利学院,大连116024

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2011年第3期34-38,共5页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项(200701015);国家"十一五"科技支持计划课题(2006BAB14B05)

摘　　要：本文依据水利部重点项目试点水库的11年汛期1342天降雨预报和实际资料,应用贝叶斯定理证明了"水库汛限水位动态控制方法"中提出的风险分析理念及其假定是基本成立的,用后验概率描述风险及构建汛限水位动态控制推理模式是合理安全的。这一研究成果对进一步推广应用汛限水位动态控制方法有参考价值,可在防洪安全前提下,增加洪水资源利用量。Based on the rainfall forecasting information and the data of rainfall observation during 1342 days in the flood seasons of 11 years at a pilot reservoir of the key program of the ministry of water resources,risk analysis concepts and assumptions adopted in the dynamic control method of limit water level are verified by Bayes theorem.It is also shown that the representation of risk by posterior probability and the related inference model used to formulate the dynamic control method are reasonable and safe.These results would provide references for promoting the use of the dynamic control method,with which the utilization rate of flood resources under flood control safety can be increased.

关 键 词：防洪工程 汛限水位动态控制 贝叶斯定理 风险分析 

分 类 号：TV697[水利工程—水利水电工程]