基于元胞自动机的艾滋病传播模型研究  

A Model Research on AIDS Diffusion Based on Cellular Automaton

作　　者：潘志方[1] 杨峰[1] 沈琴晓[2] 

机构地区：[1]温州医学院信息与工程学院,温州325035 [2]温州医学院档案馆,温州325035

出　　处：《生物医学工程学杂志》2011年第3期479-483,共5页Journal of Biomedical Engineering

摘　　要：目前艾滋病(AIDS)已成为我国面临的主要公共卫生问题之一,为了在某种程度上对疫情的发展做出估计和预测,对元胞自动机方法进行了研究,结合AIDS传播机理和特点,建立了一个AIDS传播模型。通过传播模型分析了隔离力度和AIDS免疫人对AIDS传播的影响,研究了AIDS的传播机理、特点和控制因素以及某种程度上对疫情的发展做出估计和预测。模型结构灵活,能够在演化过程中随时改变控制策略,这是传统微分方程模型所不能比拟的,对病的传播控制和预防有着重要的意义,而且对AIDS流行病学的教学中起到以往课堂教学所不能起的作用。Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome（AIDS） has been one of the main public heath problems that the Chinese public is facing.In order to estimate and predict the development of the epidemic situation,we studied on cellular automaton with the mechanism and characteristics of AIDS,and sets up an AIDS model on the base of the principle of cellular automaton.By studying the model,we analyzed the segregation power and AIDS-immune persons＇ influence on the transmission of the diseases.Some estimations and predictions can be drawn by studying model parameters.The structure of the model is flexible,and so it can change control tactics during evolution.Traditional differential equation cannot come up to it under the circumstances.It serves as tool with a great significance to the control as well as the prevention of AIDS.

关 键 词：元胞自动机 艾滋病 模型 流行病 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]