全球变暖情况下中国季节的变化  

Changes of the Seasons in China's Mainland under Global Warming

作　　者：张世轩[1] 张璐[1] 孙树鹏[1] 封国林[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院/地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [3]国家气候中心/中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《高原气象》2011年第3期659-667,共9页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40875040;40930952);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200806005);国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2006CB400503)共同资助

摘　　要：利用中国1961-2008年752站逐日地面气温、气压、相对湿度和降水量资料,采用非线性相似度量方法对中国四季进行了划分,研究了近50年全球显著变暖情形下中国四季的时空演变特征。结果表明:(1)气候增暖背景下中国大部分地区冬季持续时间明显缩短,缩短幅度达到10天以上,尤其在20世纪80年代中后期发生转折后缩短趋势突然增强,平均为0.29d.a-1;夏季持续时间自1961年以来增加了2.8天,秋季增加了4.7天,且80年代中后期都发生了一次转折变化,春季持续时间总体48年增加2.6天的变化相对较小,但在90年代后期发生转折变化后呈现明显的增加趋势;(2)与持续天数的变化相对应,中国春、夏季的起始时间呈现提前的趋势,而秋、冬季则呈现推后的趋势,尤其是80年代中后期以后变化更为明显;(3)不同季节的变化存在一定的差异,中国大部分地区冬季持续天数和起始时间变化最为明显,春、夏、秋三季相对较弱;同一季节不同区域的响应也不同,就全国而言,北方比南方的响应更明显,而以黑龙江为代表的东北地区、以新疆为代表的西北地区以及以海南为代表的华南等地变化最为明显。Using the daily observational data of surface air temperature,pressure,relative humidity and precipitation at 752 stations in China from 1961 to 2008,and the non-linear similarity method,the spatial-temporal characteristics of four seasons in China are investigated under the background of global warming and division of season index.Results indicate that in the majority of the country,the length of summer has extended and the length of winter has shortened.In particular,the lengths of summer,autumn,spring have increased 2.8,4.7,2.6 days,respectively since the 1960s.However,the length of winter has shortened by 5.6 days since the abrupt climate change in the middle of 1980s.These changes in the lengths of seasons are linked to the changes in the starting dates of seasons.Averaged across the whole country,the starting dates of autumn and winter have been delayed while spring and summer in China have started earlier;this phenomenon is especially obvious since 1980s.On the other hand,the changes in the seasons exhibit apparent seasonal and regional differences under the background of global warming.The most significant changes occured in winter,then summer,autumn and spring are less.They are more significant in the north than the south where the trend of local changes in Heilongjiang,Xinjiang Provinces and south China are the most significant.

关 键 词：全球变暖 季节划分 非线性相似度量 

分 类 号：P462.4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]