基于熵的装备精确保障系统备件组合预测模型  

The Combined Forecasting Model of Spare Parts for Equipment Efficient Support System Based on Entropy

作　　者：郑龙生[1] 花兴来[2] 张勇[1] 蔡轶[3] 

机构地区：[1]空军雷达学院研究生管理大队,湖北武汉430019 [2]空军雷达学院路基预警监视装备系,湖北武汉430019 [3]空军雷达学院科研部,湖北武汉430019

出　　处：《装备指挥技术学院学报》2011年第3期30-33,共4页Journal of the Academy of Equipment Command & Technology

摘　　要：为了精确预测备件需求,实现对装备备件的精确保障,在总结以往预测模型的基础上,构建了基于熵权的组合预测模型：首先通过信息熵理论计算各种误差评价指标的相对重要性权重;然后再通过计算不同误差指标下各单项预测方法的变异系数来确定预测方法的权重;最后利用误差评价指标权重和各误差指标下单项预测方法的权重确定组合预测的权重。实例分析表明：熵权组合预测模型比其他组合预测模型的权重确定更为合理,反映的信息更为全面,预测的效果更为精确。For the aim of precisely forecasting the demand of spare parts,carrying out efficient support for spare parts,on the basis of summarizing internal and overseas forecasting model,this paper introduces the combining forecasts model based on entropy.Firstly,making use of entropy theory to calculate the weight of error index,and then calculate the weight of single forecasting model via variation coefficient.Finally,the weights of combination forecasting are calculated by the weight of error index and single forecasting model.Simulation results show that combination forecasting model based on entropy effectively improved the forecasting precision,and more reasonable,feasible than other forecasting models.

关 键 词：熵 装备精确保障 备件 组合预测 

分 类 号：E837[军事—战术学]