Will Glacier No.1 Tianshan exist in the 22^(nd) century?  

作　　者：WenYing Wang YongPing Shen 

机构地区：[1]Chang＇an University, Xi＇an, Shaanxi 710054, China [2]Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China

出　　处：《Research in Cold and Arid Regions》2011年第3期206-215,共10页寒旱区科学（英文版）

基　　金：supported by The State Key Science Research Programme for Global Change Research of China (Grant No.2010CB951402);State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences Fund (SKLCS 2010-04);the State Key Basic Research Development Program of China (973 Program)(Grant No.2007 CB411507);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40771047)

摘　　要：Mountains have been described as the water towers of the world. Almost all major rivers have their sources in mountains; glaciers are important water resources that contribute meltwater to river discharge. Glaciers participate in the global water cycle and, with their solid water storage, are an important component of the water balance. As solid reservoirs, glaciers continue to receive the mass nourishment of solid precipitation from the atmosphere, and their meltwater feed and regulate fiver discharge. Physical changes in glaciers are an indicator of climate change. Over the past half century, the global temperature has increased by 1-2 ℃, which emphasizes the urgent task of monitoring glaciers and predicting their trend. As an example, we have investigated, researched, and surveyed Glacier No. 1 in the Urumqi River source, Tianshan （abbr. Glacier No. 1 Tianshan or Glacier No.l） for half a century. We have found an increase by degrees of the glacial regression during the last 400 years and discovered a terminal moraine which is forming today. The global temperature is rising continually, while the local glacial temperature is 0.4 times that of the global temperature change. Thus, we forecast that Glacier No. 1 Tianshan will disappear during the late 21 st Century （2074-2100 A.D.）.Mountains have been described as the water towers of the world. Almost all major rivers have their sources in mountains; glaciers are important water resources that contribute meltwater to river discharge. Glaciers participate in the global water cycle and, with their solid water storage, are an important component of the water balance. As solid reservoirs, glaciers continue to receive the mass nourishment of solid precipitation from the atmosphere, and their meltwater feed and regulate fiver discharge. Physical changes in glaciers are an indicator of climate change. Over the past half century, the global temperature has increased by 1-2 ℃, which emphasizes the urgent task of monitoring glaciers and predicting their trend. As an example, we have investigated, researched, and surveyed Glacier No. 1 in the Urumqi River source, Tianshan （abbr. Glacier No. 1 Tianshan or Glacier No.l） for half a century. We have found an increase by degrees of the glacial regression during the last 400 years and discovered a terminal moraine which is forming today. The global temperature is rising continually, while the local glacial temperature is 0.4 times that of the global temperature change. Thus, we forecast that Glacier No. 1 Tianshan will disappear during the late 21 st Century （2074-2100 A.D.）.

关 键 词：GLACIER RETREAT change FORECAST 

分 类 号：P343.63[天文地球—水文科学] P467[天文地球—地球物理学]