中国东海海平面变化多尺度周期分析与预测  

Analysis and Prediction of Sea-Level-Change Multi-Scale Cycle for East China Sea

作　　者：王国栋[1] 康建成[1] Han Guoqi 刘超[1] 闫国东[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学城市生态与环境研究中心,上海200234 [2]Fisheries and Oceans Department, Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, Newfoundland, Canada

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2011年第6期678-684,共7页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：上海市教委重点学科建设项目“地理学与城市环境”(编号:J50402)资助

摘　　要：海平面变化规律尤其是对海平面变化周期和上升趋势的研究,已成为国内外科学界研究的热点问题。使用1992—2009年海平面卫星测高仪数据资料,运用小波变换方法对中国东海海平面变化的周平均数据信号进行多尺度周期分析,并通过Winters指数平滑法对未来海平面变化进行预测,结果显示：①1992—2009年东海海平面呈现波动上升的趋势,年平均上升幅度约为0.39 cm/a;并呈现出2-3个月、12个月（1 a）、24个月（2 a）、36个月（3 a）、48个月（4 a）、55个月（4.6 a）等多尺度周期特征;②海平面变化去噪数据信号表现出比原始信号更加明显的波动上升趋势,相对应的每年海平面峰值（每年夏秋季节）,海平面上升趋势更明显,上升幅度约为0.78 cm/a,为年平均海平面增幅的2倍;③2006年后,中国东海未来海平面将保持波动上升的趋势,年平均上升幅度为0.49 cm/a,预计到2015年,海平面将比2006年上升4~5 cm;到2030年,海平面将比2006年上升14-15 cm。Research of sea level change has become the hot issue in the world,especially in the variability cycle and upward trend of sea level.In this paper,wavelet transform was applied in the sea-level change multi-scale cycle analysis of monthly average data signal in East China Sea,and future sea-level change was predicted by the way of winters exponential smoothing.The results show： ① Sea level showed upward trend in volatility in East China between 1992 to 2009,the annual average growth rate was up to about 0.39 cm/a;it had multi-scale cycle feature as follows： 2 to 3 months,12 months（1a）,24 months（2a）,36 months（3 a）,48 months（4a）,55 months（4.6a）.② Sea level data denoising signal showed upward trend more obvious than the original signal.Compared to annual maximum of sea level height（in annual summer and autumn）,sea level rise was more evident,and the average growth rate is up to about 0.78cm/a,and it was 2 times of the average annual growth rate.③ Future sea level changes（after 2006） will maintain an upward trend with fluctuations in East China Sea.Annual average growth rate will be about 0.49 cm/a.By 2015,sea level rise rate will be about 4 cm to 5 cm higher than 2006;The rate of sea level rise will increase to about 14 cm to 15 cm by the year 2030 on the basis of the year 2006.

关 键 词：中国东海 海平面变化 小波变换 winters指数平滑 

分 类 号：P722.6[天文地球—海洋科学] P76