城市规划中人口空间分布模拟方法研究  

Modeling Spatial Distribution of Population Density for Urban Planning

作　　者：肖荣波[1] 丁琛[2] 

机构地区：[1]广州市城市规划勘测设计研究院,广东广州510060 [2]大不列颠哥伦比亚大学

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2011年第6期13-18,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划(编号:2007BAC28B01);广东省软科学研究项目(编号:2010B070300004);广州市科技计划项目(编号:2010Y1-C621)

摘　　要：城市人口空间分布是影响社会经济活力、基础设施建设、公共服务配置以及城市交通、住宅、生态环境问题等方面的重要因素之一,是科学开展城市规划的基础与前提。传统的等值区域图法只能描述一个地区总体城市分布状况,难以准确反映城市内部人口的实际分布。本文通过综述国内外23篇研究成果,将城市人口分布空间模拟方法总结为城市人口密度模型、内插法空间分布模型、地理因子相关性模型(包括光谱估算法、土地利用密度法、居住单元估算法、夜间灯光强度估算法、硬化地表估算法)3大类7种,分析了它们各自的特点及改进措施。人口空间分布模拟在我国城市规划体系中有较大应用价值,重点讨论了在城镇体系规划、城市总体规划以及详细规划等不同规划层面人口空间分布适用模拟技术。最后指出为提高我国城市规划的科学性和预测精度,综合运用多种方法对城市人口空间分布进行估算模拟将成为该领域研究趋势,以期为城市规划管理提供技术参考。Urban population density and distribution is not only one of the key factors for studying urban socioeconomic development, basic establishment construction, communication, and environmental problems, but also the basis of urban management and master planning. The spatial data like remote sensing （RS） data and the socioeconomic data such as census data have merged as two distinct sources for urban population studies. Combining them as tools in the estimation of urban population density presents a number of challenges in strengthening the relationship between these two kinds of data in geographic information systems （GIS）. Based on 23 references, the paper summarizes 7 methods to estimate spatial distribution of urban population density, such as population density function, spatial interpolation, geographic correlation, including spectrum modeling, land use density modeling, resident area modeling, nighttime light image modeling, and impervious surface modeling. It＇s very useful to model spatial distribution of population density for China＇s urban planning system, including town system planning, urban master planning and detailed planning. And it is essential to confirm a suitable way to develop ,There are many ways to heishten the accuracy of these modeling methods, for example improving the classification of the land using type in the region studied, with RS data of higher resolution, or improving the models and mathematical statistics solution of estimation. However, the advisable measure is to integrate multiple methods to advance the accuracy, which is expected to be the major new direction in this study area.

关 键 词：人口密度模拟 遥感 精度 空间分布 

分 类 号：TU984.1[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]