农民非农收入与农村土地流转关系的协整分析——以江苏省南京市为例  

Co-integration Test and Causality Analysis on the Relationship between Farmers' Non-agricultural Income and Farmland Transfer——A Case Study of Nanjing,Jiangsu

作　　者：许恒周[1] 郭玉燕[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理学院,天津300072 [2]江苏省社会科学院社会政策研究所,江苏南京210036

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2011年第6期61-66,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目(编号:09YJC630164)

摘　　要：农村土地流转是提高土地利用率、实现土地规模化、加快农村剩余劳动力转移的重要方式。尤其是在党的十七届三中全会《决定》中明确提出要加快农村土地流转,发展适度规模经营。而农地流转能否增加农民非农收入、缩小收入差距是农地流转过程中必须回答的现实问题。本文以江苏省南京市调查数据为例,采用协整方法对农民非农收入影响农地流转的长期均衡关系及其作用机制进行了探讨。研究结果表明:农民非农收入与农地流转之间存在着长期均衡关系,但短期却存在波动。同时,农民非农收入水平与农地流转之间存在着双向因果关系,而且早期农地流转对农民非农收入的影响程度较弱。在此基础上,本文从加快发展非农产业,提供农民非农收入水平;大力发展农村职业教育,提高农民文化水平与素质;培育完善农地流转和农村劳动力就业市场等方面提出了对策建议。Farmland transfer is an important mode for enhancing the efficiency of land use, realizing farmland scale management and accelerating the transfer of rural surplus labor. Especially at the Third Plenum of the 17th CPC Central Committee, some resolutions were put forward that include accelerating the transfer of rural land, and developing the operation of moderate scale. However, whether or not farmland transfer can increase the non-agricultural income of farmers and narrowing income gap is the realistic issue in the process of farmland transfer. Take the questionnaire of Nanjing for example, this paper employed the method of co-integration analysis to discuss the long-term equilibrium relationship between non-agricultural income and farmland transfer and the their action mechanism. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between no-agricultural income and farmland transfer, but there is fluctuation in the short term. Meanwhile, there is bilateral causality between no-agricultural income and farmland transfer, and that at the early stage, farmland transfer has less influence on non-agricultural income. On this basis, this paper puts forward some suggestions which include speeding up the development of non-agricultural industries, developing rural vocational education, fostering and perfecting the market of farmland transfer and rural labor employment.

关 键 词：农地流转 非农收入 协整检验 GRANGER因果关系 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]