江苏省沿海地区经济发展与碳排放相关性研究  

Relativity Study on Economic Development and Carbon Emissions in Jiangsu Coastal Areas

作　　者：王圣[1,2] 王慧敏[1] 蒋松凯[3] 陈辉[2] 蔡春霞[4] 孙雪丽[2] 李亚春[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]国电环境保护研究院,江苏南京210031 [3]江苏省工程咨询中心,江苏南京210003 [4]环保部环境发展中心,北京100029

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2011年第6期170-174,共5页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家发改委碳排放清单研究课题;江苏省沿海地区综合开发战略研究子课题(编号:2009LY29)

摘　　要：与能源结构和能源效率因素相比,经济发展对人均碳排放的影响最为显著。以江苏省沿海地区能源消费情况为基础,研究得出地区碳排放、人均碳排放,并且1999-2008年该地区碳排放量与人均碳排放量的增加趋势一致。选取人均GDP来代表经济增长数据,人均CO2排放代表碳排放数据,借助环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)模型来分析江苏省沿海地区经济发展与CO2排放之间的关系和演变态势。根据环境库兹涅茨曲线研究江苏省沿海地区经济发展与人均碳排放之间的关系,相关性研究结果表明,最优拟合模型中参数α0为0.245 7,α1为3.658 14e-5,α2为1.318 32e-8,α3为-3.298 09e-13,所以根据模型设定判断得出:1999-2008年间江苏省沿海地区人均碳排放量和人均GDP并不符合标准的环境库兹涅茨曲线(倒U型)关系,而是表现为三次方曲线模型。同时,依据人均碳排放量的变化特征,将江苏省沿海地区人均碳排放分为两个阶段:1999-2006年,人均碳排放量随着经济的增长持续增加;2006-2008年人均碳排放量随经济增加趋势变缓。The influence of economic development to carbon emissions per capita is greater than energy structure and energy efficiency. Based on energy consumption of the coastal area in Jiangsu province, carbon emissions and per capita carbon emission can be given. And the variation trend is consistent between carbon emissions and per capita carbon emission in this area from 1999 to 2008. Per capita GDP is on behalf of economic development information, and per capita carbon dioxide emission is on behalf of carbon emissions information. The EKC model has been used to analyze the relation and change trend between the economic development and carbon dioxide emissions in the Jiangsu coastal area. Based on the above condition and study, the relativity results show that all the parameters in the optimum fitting curve model is α0 =0. 245 7, α1 =3. 658 14e^ -5, α2 = 1. 318 32e^-8 and α3 = -3. 298 09e^-3. So from the EKC model, the conclusion has been provided that the relationship between carbon emissions per capita and GDP per capita is not contrary U type, while is three times polynomial. In the meantime, according to the dynamic transformation of per capita carbon emission, two steps can be divided as from 1999 to 2006 and from 2006 to 2008 about per capita carbon emission in the Jiangsu coastal area. In the first step, per capita carbon emission increases with the economic development continuously; and in the second step, per capita carbon emission increases slowly.

关 键 词：经济发展 碳排放 相关性研究 排放因子 环境库兹涅茨曲线 拟合优度 

分 类 号：F224.9[经济管理—国民经济] F812.0