水库大坝安全评价技术与方法探讨  

Discussion on technologies and methods of safety evaluation of dams and reservoirs

作　　者：熊威 田波 卢建华 

机构地区：[1]长江勘测规划设计研究院,湖北武汉430010 [2]国家大坝安全工程技术研究中心,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《人民长江》2011年第12期24-27,共4页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划"水库大坝病险与溃坝规律研究"(2006BAC14B01);国家大坝安全工程技术研究中心资助项目(2009FU115×17)

摘　　要：对病险水库定期开展水库安全评价工作至关重要。国内外水库安全评价技术与方法主要分为传统的定性准则法和综合评价分析法,重点介绍了综合评价分析法中的综合评分法,层次分析法,风险评估分析法和模糊综合评价法的原理和步骤。比较分析表明,传统的定性准则法具有评价内容明确,评价方法可操作性强的优点,适合用于评价单一项目,但其未考虑各类影响大坝安全的不确定因素,评价结论层次不明显,参考价值有限;综合评价分析法能够通过各种计算方法,定量考虑各类影响因素的影响程度和权重,因此评价结果更加可靠。There are a large number of dangerous reservoirs in China,and their benefits cannot be normally realized.Therefore,a regular evaluation of reservoir safety is necessary.We summarize the technologies and methods of evaluating the safety of dams and reservoirs at home and abroad,which can be divided into the traditional qualitative criterion method and comprehensive evaluation and analysis method.The principles and steps of the comprehensive grading method,analytic hierarchy process（AHP）,risk evaluation method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are focused.The results show that the traditional qualitative criterion has the advantages of clear evaluation objects and strong operability,which is suitable for the evaluation of single project;however,the various uncertainties are ignored;the evaluation results are not leveled and are of limited reference values.The comprehensive evaluation method takes account of all sorts of influential factors,influencing degree and weight quantitatively,by using various calculation methods,so the evaluation results are more reliable.

关 键 词：安全评价 风险分析 定性准则法 综合评价法 病险水库 

分 类 号：TV698[水利工程—水利水电工程]