中国北方地下煤层发火概率统计分析  

Statistical analysis of the probability of underground coal combustion in northern China

作　　者：刘晓晨[1,2,3] 武建军[1,2,3] 赵菲菲[1,2,3] 刘明[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《煤田地质与勘探》2011年第3期7-13,共7页Coal Geology & Exploration

基　　金：国际科技合作重点项目(2007DFA90500)

摘　　要：二项逻辑回归模型能够弥补样本量小、自变量类型不统一等不足,对因变量数据假设的要求较低,可用来预测具有二分特点的因变量概率值。以新疆现存的地下煤火火点与随机生成的控制点作为建立回归方程的样本,以煤质指标中的灰分、挥发分、硫分、发热量,煤层上覆岩层的地质年代、地表坡度与深大断裂带的分布,以及干燥度、人口密度与矿区的管理水平等11个指标作为自变量,以火点为1与控制点为0作为因变量值,运用二项逻辑回归模型建立回归方程,并预测了中国北方11个省区的地下煤层发火(地下煤火)概率。结果显示,研究区内地下煤火发火概率的分布局势总体上为:东部等级高且集中;西部等级较低;在各大煤田中,极高与高等级发火概率均有分布。经验证,研究结果精度可达67.7%左右,且预测高发区与原煤火发生区域相当匹配,中国北方地下煤火的发火概率等级分布图可以作为灭火工程实施与火区治理的参考。China has widely distributed coal resources;however,suffering from the perennial underground coal fires for so many decades.The coal fire swallows coal resources and leads to sever environmental and ecological pollution.For fighting against the underground coal fire,the results from statistical analysis of the fire spatial dis-tribution and its probability of the occurrence can be provided to the fire fighters as the theory for reasonably allo-cating resources and supporting the decision-making.For underground coal fire forecasting and analysis,the data of each factors are with different varieties,and the samples are always not sufficient,binary logistic regression model can overcome these limitations,with its low requirements on the dependent variable data hypothesis,it can be used to predict the dependent variable having two characteristics of probability values.The paper selects the control points generated randomly and the coal fire zones in the database as the sample points,extracts the data in each variable including ash content,pyrite,volatile,calorific value of coal,geological age,faults,slope,aridity,population density above coal seam and the management level of mines.The forecasting model by the binary lo-gistic regression model was established and the model was applied to the north China,the underground coal fires predicting precision can reach to 67.7%,the result can be provided as the theoretical basis for reasonably allocatine fire extinguishing resources.

关 键 词：中国北方 地下煤火 二项逻辑回归 预测 统计分析 

分 类 号：TD751[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]