胜利油田民用天然气负荷预测研究  

Study on Civil Natural Gas Load Prediction in Shengli Oil Field

作　　者：蒋文明[1] 刘帆[1] 曹学文[1] 李国森[2] 刘吉东[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)储运与建筑工程学院,山东青岛266555 [2]胜利油田分公司油气集输总厂,山东东营257000

出　　处：《天然气与石油》2011年第3期1-3,6,共4页Natural Gas and Oil

基　　金：国家863科技攻关项目(2007AA09Z301)

摘　　要：胜利油田不同地区民用气用户的用气量不均匀,用气量随不同地区,每天不同时间段,每年的不同月份存在巨大波动,给民用气系统输配安全和平稳供气造成巨大障碍。为实现输配系统平稳供气,介绍了指数平滑预测模型,并运用该模型对胜利油田民用天然气负荷进行预测计算,并用后验差方法对预测结果进行了精度检验,结果发现预测模型在实际应用中均可满足预测需要,直线模型预测精度最高,达1级;二次曲线模型较差,精度是2级。在实际应用中需要根据预测精度灵活选择合适的预测模型。Civil natural gas load in Shengli Oil Field is uneven and changes along with different areas, different time in one day and different months in one year, which brings a lot of troubles to local gas transportation and distribution system. Exponential Smoothing Method is introduced to predict civil natural gas load in the future in order to solve those troubles. Posterior Variance Test Method is adopted to test the prediction results and it is found that accuracy standard of results from linear mode is grade 1 and accuracy standard of results from secondary curve mode is grade 2. The right mode may be selected according to accuracy demand in actual situations.

关 键 词：胜利油田 天然气负荷 预测 指数平滑 

分 类 号：TU996[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]