柔性契约机制下外向型制造商的多阶段采购策略分析  

Analysis of Multi-Stage Purchasing Strategy for Export-Oriented Manufacturers under Flexible Lease Mechanism

作　　者：王江沄[1] 王緌[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学工商管理学院,四川成都610064

出　　处：《工业工程》2011年第3期70-73,共4页Industrial Engineering Journal

摘　　要：研究了柔性契约机制下,中国外向型制造商在全球采购环节中的多阶段策略,以期能应对后危机时代更大的不确定性风险。提出了模糊随机动态规划这一新的研究模型,通过二叉树模型模拟汇率、蒙特卡罗技术模拟模糊随机变量,构建了求解此类规划的算法。对理论模型进行了算例仿真,仿真结果验证了算法的可行性,为中国外向型制造企业制定全球采购计划提供了更加科学的方法和依据。To cope with the uncertainty risk in the post-crisis era, multi-stage purchasing strategy for export-oriented manufacturers in China under flexible lease mechanism is studied. A new fuzzy stochastic dynamic programming is developed to describe the problem. Then, a new solution method is presented by simulating the exchange rate and fuzzy random variables with binary tree model and Monte Carlo method, respectively. A numerical example is used to verify the feasibility of the proposed model. This method is helpful for global purchasing planning for the export-oriented manufacturers in China.

关 键 词：多阶段采购策略 模糊随机动态规划 二叉树模型 蒙特卡罗仿真 

分 类 号：F251.2[经济管理—国民经济]